Why this pick: Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Nottingham Forest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: model vs market
| Source | Liverpool | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.31 | 1.54 | +0.23 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| Nottingham Forest | 5.90 | 5.78 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liverpool and Nottingham Forest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Liverpool / Nottingham Forest)
- 1.10 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Liverpool / Nottingham Forest)
- 1.24 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Nottingham Forest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Nottingham Forest | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liverpool or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Nottingham Forest) | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Liverpool and Nottingham Forest recent form
Liverpool
1W 3D 2L
Nottingham Forest
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Liverpool absences
-
C. Bradley
knee injury
-
F. Chiesa
back injury
-
G. Leoni
knee injury
-
H. Ekitike
achilles tendon injury
-
J. Gomez
injury
Nottingham Forest absences
-
M. Gibbs-White
knee injury
-
N. Savona
knee injury
-
R. Yates
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Liverpool 5 · draws 1 · Nottingham Forest 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Nottingham Forest | 0-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2025-11-22 | Liverpool | 0-3 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2025-01-14 | Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2024-09-14 | Liverpool | 0-1 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2024-03-02 | Nottingham Forest | 0-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2023-10-29 | Liverpool | 3-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2023-04-22 | Liverpool | 3-2 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2022-10-22 | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2022-03-20 | Nottingham Forest | 0-1 | Liverpool | FA Cup |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Crystal Palace v Manchester City — match page 2026-08-28
- Bournemouth vs Everton 2026-08-29
- Coventry v Hull City — match page 2026-08-29
- Tottenham vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- Chelsea vs Brighton 2026-08-30
- Leeds v Brentford — match page 2026-08-30
- Sunderland vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Manchester United vs Ipswich 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Liverpool, previous: Newcastle United – Liverpool, 2026-08-23
- Liverpool, next: Ipswich – Liverpool, 2026-09-04
- Nottingham Forest, previous: Nottingham Forest – Leeds, 2026-08-22
- Nottingham Forest, next: Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: odds and pick