Updated

Premier League · Matchday 2

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

· Selhurst Park, London· Referee Andy Madley, England

Full time1 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Manchester City to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Crystal PalaceDrawManchester City

Why this pick: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Crystal Palace 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Crystal PalaceManchester City
1.61 xG per 90 2.33
1.45 npxG per 90 2.33
14.5 PPDA 10.9
6.1 Deep completions per 90 14.1
1.30 xPTS per 90 1.99

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCrystal PalaceDrawManchester City
Model33%25%42%
Market19%23%58%
Published22%24%54%
Edge+3%0%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.55.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-22.

Opened 1.50Now 1.65 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Crystal Palace4.405.00+0.60
Draw3.804.12+0.33
Manchester City1.501.65+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Crystal Palace and Manchester City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Crystal Palace
1.87Manchester City
Total expected goals
3.42
Attack rating (Crystal Palace / Manchester City)
1.19 / 1.41
Defence rating (Crystal Palace / Manchester City)
1.09 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 4.3% 5.3% 3.3% 2.3% 1 3.5% 10.6% 8.6% 5.4% 3.8% 2 4.0% 7.5% 7.0% 4.4% 3.1% 3 2.2% 4.1% 3.8% 2.4% 1.7% 4+ 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0%

Rows: Crystal Palace goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Crystal Palace22%4.45
Draw24%4.24
Manchester City54%1.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.11
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.27
Double chance1X (Crystal Palace or draw)46%2.17
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Manchester City)78%1.29
Handicap -1Manchester City win by 2+24%4.19
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Crystal Palace and Manchester City recent form

Crystal Palace 1W 2D 3L
Manchester City 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Crystal Palace absences

  • C. Riad knee injury
  • I. Sarr injury

Manchester City absences

  • J. Doku calf injury
  • M. Nunes injury
  • R. McAidoo shoulder injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Crystal Palace 1 · draws 3 · Manchester City 6.

Crystal PalaceDrawsManchester City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-13Manchester City3-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2025-12-14Crystal Palace0-3Manchester CityPremier League
2025-05-17Crystal Palace1-0Manchester CityEngland FA Cup
2025-04-12Manchester City5-2Crystal PalacePremier League
2024-12-07Crystal Palace2-2Manchester CityPremier League
2024-04-06Crystal Palace2-4Manchester CityPremier League
2023-12-16Manchester City2-2Crystal PalacePremier League
2023-03-11Crystal Palace0-1Manchester CityPremier League
2022-08-27Manchester City4-2Crystal PalacePremier League
2022-03-14Crystal Palace0-0Manchester CityPremier League

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match