Updated

Premier League · Matchday 1

Hull City vs Manchester United

· MKM Stadium, Hull· Referee Darren England, England

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Manchester United to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hull CityDrawManchester United

Hull City vs Manchester United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHull CityDrawManchester United
Model39%30%31%
Market10%18%72%
Published17%21%61%
Edge+7%+3%-10%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hull City vs Manchester United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester United, 9 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.36Now 1.33 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hull City8.419.35+0.94
Draw4.955.24+0.29
Manchester United1.361.33-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hull City and Manchester United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.34Hull City
1.24Manchester United
Total expected goals
2.58
Attack rating (Hull City / Manchester United)
0.89 / 1.31
Defence rating (Hull City / Manchester United)
0.78 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hull City vs Manchester United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.0% 6.9% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 1 8.1% 14.2% 7.7% 3.2% 1.3% 2 7.0% 8.7% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.3% 4.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Hull City goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hull City vs Manchester United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hull City vs Manchester United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hull City17%5.74
Draw21%4.74
Manchester United61%1.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.03
Under 2.551%1.97
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.80
No45%2.25
Double chance1X (Hull City or draw)39%2.60
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Manchester United)83%1.21
Handicap -1Manchester United win by 2+14%7.12
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hull City and Manchester United recent form

Hull City 3W 2D 1L
Manchester United 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match