Updated

Premier League · Matchday 1

Arsenal vs Coventry

· Emirates Stadium, London· Referee Thomas Bramall, England

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Arsenal to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score

Win probability
ArsenalDrawCoventry

Arsenal vs Coventry: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceArsenalDrawCoventry
Model66%21%13%
Market79%14%7%
Published76%15%8%
Edge-3%+2%+1%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Arsenal vs Coventry odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 3 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.18Now 1.20 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Arsenal1.181.20+0.02
Draw7.457.00-0.45
Coventry16.0013.60-2.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Arsenal and Coventry expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.84Arsenal
1.15Coventry
Total expected goals
1.99
Attack rating (Arsenal / Coventry)
0.91 / 1.57
Defence rating (Arsenal / Coventry)
0.60 / 0.61

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arsenal vs Coventry score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.1% 13.0% 8.6% 3.3% 1.2% 1 9.6% 15.3% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 2 5.1% 5.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Coventry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arsenal vs Coventry goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arsenal vs Coventry

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Arsenal76%1.31
Draw15%6.51
Coventry8%11.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.79
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.74
No43%2.35
Double chance1X (Arsenal or draw)92%1.09
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Coventry)24%4.19
Handicap -1Arsenal win by 2+10%10.50
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Arsenal and Coventry recent form

Arsenal 5W 1D 0L
Coventry 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match