Updated

Premier League · Matchday 2

Tottenham vs Newcastle United

· Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London· Referee Peter Bankes, England

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Tottenham to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TottenhamDrawNewcastle United

Why this pick: Tottenham vs Newcastle United

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Tottenham 10, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

TottenhamNewcastle United
1.33 xG per 90 1.48
1.33 npxG per 90 1.48
9.0 PPDA 11.4
4.6 Deep completions per 90 7.0
1.45 xPTS per 90 1.02

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Tottenham vs Newcastle United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTottenhamDrawNewcastle United
Model65%17%18%
Market42%26%32%
Published48%24%29%
Edge+6%-2%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 1.63.
  • The market prices Tottenham below our published probability: +5.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Tottenham vs Newcastle United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tottenham, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.

Opened 2.15Now 2.30 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Tottenham2.152.30+0.15
Draw3.703.70+0.00
Newcastle United3.292.95-0.34

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tottenham and Newcastle United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.87Tottenham
1.63Newcastle United
Total expected goals
4.50
Attack rating (Tottenham / Newcastle United)
1.27 / 1.17
Defence rating (Tottenham / Newcastle United)
1.15 / 1.47

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tottenham vs Newcastle United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 0.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 1 2.2% 5.4% 3.9% 2.1% 1.2% 2 4.4% 7.1% 5.8% 3.2% 1.9% 3 4.4% 7.1% 5.8% 3.2% 1.9% 4+ 6.9% 11.3% 9.2% 5.0% 3.0%

Rows: Tottenham goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tottenham vs Newcastle United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tottenham vs Newcastle United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tottenham48%2.10
Draw24%4.22
Newcastle United29%3.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.19
Under 2.516%6.35
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.30
No23%4.37
Double chance1X (Tottenham or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Newcastle United)52%1.91
Handicap -1Tottenham win by 2+47%2.15
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tottenham and Newcastle United recent form

Tottenham 3W 1D 2L
Newcastle United 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Tottenham absences

  • D. Kulusevski knee injury
  • J. Maddison knock
  • M. Kudus muscle injury
  • P. M. Sarr injury
  • W. Odobert knee injury
  • X. Simons knee injury

Newcastle United absences

  • D. Burn ankle injury
  • Joelinton injury
  • V. Livramento hamstring injury
  • W. Osula injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Tottenham vs Newcastle United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Tottenham 1 · draws 3 · Newcastle United 6.

TottenhamDrawsNewcastle United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-10Tottenham1-2Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2025-12-02Newcastle United2-2TottenhamPremier League
2025-10-29Newcastle United2-0TottenhamLeague Cup
2025-08-03Tottenham1-1Newcastle UnitedFriendlies Clubs
2025-01-04Tottenham1-2Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2024-09-01Newcastle United2-1TottenhamPremier League
2024-05-22Newcastle United1-1TottenhamFriendlies Clubs
2024-04-13Newcastle United4-0TottenhamPremier League
2023-12-10Tottenham4-1Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2023-04-23Newcastle United6-1TottenhamPremier League

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match