Updated

Premier League · Matchday 1

Newcastle United vs Liverpool

· St James' Park, Newcastle· Referee Stuart Attwell, England

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Liverpool to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Newcastle UnitedDrawLiverpool

Why this pick: Newcastle United vs Liverpool

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Newcastle United 10, Liverpool 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Newcastle UnitedLiverpool
1.52 xG per 90 1.55
1.44 npxG per 90 1.55
11.4 PPDA 10.6
7.5 Deep completions per 90 9.9
1.13 xPTS per 90 1.28

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNewcastle UnitedDrawLiverpool
Model47%23%30%
Market25%25%50%
Published31%24%45%
Edge+5%-1%-5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 8 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.92Now 1.96 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Newcastle United3.703.82+0.12
Draw3.803.88+0.08
Liverpool1.921.96+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Newcastle United and Liverpool expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.08Newcastle United
1.73Liverpool
Total expected goals
3.80
Attack rating (Newcastle United / Liverpool)
1.08 / 1.01
Defence rating (Newcastle United / Liverpool)
1.42 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 2.3% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 1 3.2% 8.7% 6.5% 3.8% 2.4% 2 4.8% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 2.6% 3 3.5% 6.0% 5.2% 3.0% 1.9% 4+ 3.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.7% 1.7%

Rows: Newcastle United goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Newcastle United vs Liverpool

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Newcastle United31%3.24
Draw24%4.09
Liverpool45%2.24
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.34
Under 2.525%3.98
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.35
No26%3.87
Double chance1X (Newcastle United or draw)55%1.81
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Liverpool)69%1.45
Handicap -1Liverpool win by 2+15%6.53
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Newcastle United and Liverpool recent form

Newcastle United 2W 1D 3L
Liverpool 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Newcastle United 0 · draws 1 · Liverpool 5.

Newcastle UnitedDrawsLiverpool
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-31Liverpool4-1Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2025-08-25Newcastle United2-3LiverpoolPremier League
2025-02-26Liverpool2-0Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2024-12-04Newcastle United3-3LiverpoolPremier League
2024-01-01Liverpool4-2Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2023-08-27Newcastle United1-2LiverpoolPremier League

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match