Updated

Premier League · Matchday 1

Brentford vs Tottenham

· Brentford Community Stadium, London· Referee Michael Oliver, England

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Brentford to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BrentfordDrawTottenham

Why this pick: Brentford vs Tottenham

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brentford 10, Tottenham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BrentfordTottenham
1.56 xG per 90 1.39
1.41 npxG per 90 1.39
10.8 PPDA 9.6
5.6 Deep completions per 90 4.2
1.28 xPTS per 90 1.53

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Brentford vs Tottenham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBrentfordDrawTottenham
Model44%24%32%
Market45%26%29%
Published45%26%30%
Edge0%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Brentford vs Tottenham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brentford, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.45Now 2.12 -0.33
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Brentford2.452.12-0.33
Draw3.603.70+0.10
Tottenham2.763.30+0.54

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brentford and Tottenham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Brentford
1.63Tottenham
Total expected goals
3.47
Attack rating (Brentford / Tottenham)
1.13 / 1.07
Defence rating (Brentford / Tottenham)
1.26 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brentford vs Tottenham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 3.3% 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 1 4.1% 10.3% 7.3% 4.0% 2.3% 2 5.3% 8.6% 7.0% 3.8% 2.2% 3 3.4% 5.6% 4.5% 2.5% 1.4% 4+ 2.6% 4.2% 3.4% 1.8% 1.1%

Rows: Brentford goals. Columns: Tottenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brentford vs Tottenham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brentford vs Tottenham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Brentford45%2.23
Draw26%3.92
Tottenham30%3.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.23
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.43
No30%3.35
Double chance1X (Brentford or draw)70%1.42
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Tottenham)55%1.81
Handicap -1Brentford win by 2+25%3.98
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Brentford and Tottenham recent form

Brentford 1W 3D 2L
Tottenham 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Brentford vs Tottenham head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Brentford 0 · draws 2 · Tottenham 4.

BrentfordDrawsTottenham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-01Brentford0-0TottenhamPremier League
2025-12-06Tottenham2-0BrentfordPremier League
2025-02-02Brentford0-2TottenhamPremier League
2024-09-21Tottenham3-1BrentfordPremier League
2024-01-31Tottenham3-2BrentfordPremier League
2023-08-13Brentford2-2TottenhamPremier League

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match