Updated

Serie A · Matchday 8

Udinese vs AC Milan

· Bluenergy Stadium, Udine· Referee Matteo Marcenaro

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was AC Milan to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UdineseDrawAC Milan

Why this pick: Udinese vs AC Milan

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Udinese 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

UdineseAC Milan
1.00 xG per 90 2.02
1.00 npxG per 90 1.81
17.6 PPDA 13.9
5.4 Deep completions per 90 6.4
0.72 xPTS per 90 1.80

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Udinese vs AC Milan: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUdineseDrawAC Milan
Model25%23%51%
Market21%26%52%
Published22%26%52%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.55.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Udinese vs AC Milan odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.81Now 1.84 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Udinese4.364.50+0.14
Draw3.683.65-0.03
AC Milan1.811.84+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Udinese and AC Milan expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Udinese
2.22AC Milan
Total expected goals
3.78
Attack rating (Udinese / AC Milan)
0.98 / 1.28
Defence rating (Udinese / AC Milan)
1.45 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Udinese vs AC Milan score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 3.5% 5.7% 4.2% 3.9% 1 2.0% 9.5% 8.8% 6.5% 6.1% 2 2.8% 6.1% 6.8% 5.1% 4.7% 3 1.4% 3.2% 3.5% 2.6% 2.5% 4+ 0.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.3%

Rows: Udinese goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Udinese vs AC Milan goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Udinese vs AC Milan

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Udinese22%4.47
Draw26%3.90
AC Milan52%1.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.38
Under 2.527%3.66
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.56
Double chance1X (Udinese or draw)48%2.08
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or AC Milan)78%1.29
Handicap -1AC Milan win by 2+32%3.10
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Udinese and AC Milan recent form

Udinese 1W 0D 5L
AC Milan 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Udinese at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.

AC Milan away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Udinese at home only, AC Milan away only.

Injuries & availability

Udinese absences

  • A. Zanoli muscle injury
  • D. Alaba calf injury
  • I. Gueye ankle injury
  • O. Solet muscle injury
  • V. Bayo thigh injury

AC Milan absences

  • A. Rabiot calf injury
  • A. Saelemaekers ankle injury
  • D. Moreira thigh injury
  • M. Gabbia thigh injury
  • M. Gila ankle injury
  • S. Chukwueze hip injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Udinese lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 M. Okoye
  2. 16 M. Palma
  3. 27 C. Kabasele
  4. 14 J. Abankwah
  5. 11 H. Kamara
  6. 8 J. Karlström
  7. 24 J. Piotrowski
  8. 23 M. Vojvoda
  9. 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
  10. 30 G. Chakvetadze
  11. 9 K. Davis

Bench: S. Lovrić, Oier Zarraga, N. Zaniolo, N. Bertola, J. Arizala, L. Miller, B. Mrozek, G. Vinciati, Unai Gómez, E. Ebosse, L. Jovanović, D. Padelli

AC Milan lineup · 4-4-1-1

  1. 16 M. Maignan
  2. 13 S. Bocoum
  3. 31 S. Pavlović
  4. 5 K. De Winter
  5. 23 F. Tomori
  6. 33 D. Bartesaghi
  7. 30 A. Jashari
  8. 14 L. Modrić
  9. 20 O. Hutchinson
  10. 11 C. Pulišić
  11. 9 Gonçalo Ramos

Bench: P. Estupiñán, R. Loftus-Cheek, C. Comotto, V. Vladimirov, L. Ossola, L. P. Bouyer, F. Terracciano, A. Cissè, F. Camarda, Y. Musah, L. Torriani

Udinese vs AC Milan head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Udinese 3 · draws 2 · AC Milan 5.

UdineseDrawsAC Milan
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11AC Milan0-3UdineseSerie A
2025-09-20Udinese0-3AC MilanSerie A
2025-04-11Udinese0-4AC MilanSerie A
2024-10-19AC Milan1-0UdineseSerie A
2024-01-20Udinese2-3AC MilanSerie A
2023-11-04AC Milan0-1UdineseSerie A
2023-03-18Udinese3-1AC MilanSerie A
2022-08-13AC Milan4-2UdineseSerie A
2022-02-25AC Milan1-1UdineseSerie A
2021-12-11Udinese1-1AC MilanSerie A

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match