Why this pick: Cagliari vs Bologna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Cagliari vs Bologna: model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 32% | 32% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cagliari vs Bologna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 3.23 | 2.97 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.02 | 3.00 | -0.02 |
| Bologna | 2.46 | 2.70 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cagliari and Bologna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (Cagliari / Bologna)
- 1.10 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Cagliari / Bologna)
- 1.28 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cagliari vs Bologna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cagliari vs Bologna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cagliari vs Bologna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Bologna | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cagliari or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Bologna) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win by 2+ | 18% | 5.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cagliari and Bologna recent form
Cagliari
3W 1D 2L
Bologna
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cagliari at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Bologna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cagliari at home only, Bologna away only.
Injuries & availability
Cagliari absences
-
M. Felici
knee injury
-
R. Idrissi
knee injury
-
Y. Trepy
injury
Bologna absences
- E. Holm thigh injury
-
R. Orsolini
thigh injury
- R. Piccoli hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Cagliari lineup · 4-3-2-1
- 1 E. Caprile
- 33 A. Obert
- 15 J. Rodríguez
- 14 A. Deiola
- 2 Zé Pedro
- 4 A. Romano
- 6 H. Winks
- 8 M. Adopo
- 70 D. Maldini
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 31 P. Mendy
Bench: Kevin Carlos, J. Fazzini, A. Sherri, M'Bala Nzola, R. Ciervo, R. Gagliardini, R. Kofler, B. Radunović, G. Aurelio, Y. Mina, J. Liteta, Y. Sugawara, Ivan Stoyanov Sulev, A. Fadera
Bologna lineup · 3-4-3
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 3 A. Theate
- 16 N. Casale
- 36 M. Darmian
- 33 Juan Miranda
- 4 T. Pobega
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 20 N. Zortea
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
Bench: E. Helland, N. Moro, M. Amondarain, A. Dovbyk, S. Mbangula, T. Heggem, O. El Azzouzi, M. Libra, J. Enem, R. Alhassane, M. Pessina, L. De Silvestri, M. Vitík, U. Happonen
Cagliari vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cagliari 3 · draws 1 · Bologna 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Bologna | 0-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-10-19 | Cagliari | 0-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-03-02 | Bologna | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-10-29 | Cagliari | 0-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2024-01-14 | Cagliari | 2-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2023-09-02 | Bologna | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2022-10-20 | Bologna | 1-0 | Cagliari | Coppa Italia |
| 2022-01-11 | Cagliari | 2-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2021-11-01 | Bologna | 2-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2021-03-03 | Cagliari | 1-0 | Bologna | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Torino vs Monza 2026-10-23
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Cagliari, previous: Monza vs Cagliari: odds and pick
- Cagliari, next: Roma v Cagliari analysis
- Bologna, previous: Bologna vs Inter: odds and pick
- Bologna, next: AC Milan vs Bologna prediction