Updated

Serie A · Matchday 1

Venezia vs Lecce

· Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice· Referee Antonio Rapuano, Italy

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Venezia to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VeneziaDrawLecce

Why this pick: Venezia vs Lecce

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Venezia 10, Lecce 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VeneziaLecce
1.19 xG per 90 1.14
1.19 npxG per 90 1.14
10.5 PPDA 13.3
5.6 Deep completions per 90 3.8
1.20 xPTS per 90 1.09

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Venezia vs Lecce: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVeneziaDrawLecce
Model78%15%6%
Market48%29%23%
Published55%26%19%
Edge+8%-3%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Venezia below our published probability: +7.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Venezia vs Lecce odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Venezia, 9 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.25Now 2.00 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Venezia2.252.00-0.25
Draw3.153.25+0.10
Lecce3.354.10+0.75

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Venezia and Lecce expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.81Venezia
0.78Lecce
Total expected goals
3.58
Attack rating (Venezia / Lecce)
1.63 / 0.90
Defence rating (Venezia / Lecce)
0.75 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Venezia vs Lecce score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1 6.6% 7.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2 11.0% 8.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 3 10.2% 8.0% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 14.2% 11.0% 4.3% 1.1% 0.3%

Rows: Venezia goals. Columns: Lecce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Venezia vs Lecce goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Venezia vs Lecce

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Venezia55%1.81
Draw26%3.87
Lecce19%5.26
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.44
Under 2.531%3.27
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Venezia or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Lecce)45%2.23
Handicap -1Venezia win by 2+59%1.69
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Venezia and Lecce recent form

Venezia 4W 2D 0L
Lecce 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Venezia vs Lecce head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Venezia 0 · draws 1 · Lecce 1.

VeneziaDrawsLecce
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-06Lecce1-1VeneziaSerie A
2024-11-25Venezia0-1LecceSerie A

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match