Updated

Serie A · Matchday 1

Torino vs AC Milan

· Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Turin· Referee Luca Zufferli, Italy

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was AC Milan to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TorinoDrawAC Milan

Why this pick: Torino vs AC Milan

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

TorinoAC Milan
1.64 xG per 90 1.24
1.49 npxG per 90 1.09
15.3 PPDA 16.7
4.3 Deep completions per 90 7.5
1.47 xPTS per 90 1.19

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Torino vs AC Milan: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTorinoDrawAC Milan
Model42%27%31%
Market22%28%50%
Published27%28%45%
Edge+5%0%-5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Torino vs AC Milan odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 9 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.79Now 1.91 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Torino4.504.40-0.10
Draw3.653.40-0.25
AC Milan1.791.91+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Torino and AC Milan expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Torino
1.52AC Milan
Total expected goals
3.27
Attack rating (Torino / AC Milan)
1.11 / 1.12
Defence rating (Torino / AC Milan)
1.17 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Torino vs AC Milan score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 3.7% 4.4% 2.2% 1.2% 1 4.7% 12.1% 7.7% 3.9% 2.1% 2 5.9% 8.9% 6.7% 3.4% 1.8% 3 3.4% 5.2% 3.9% 2.0% 1.1% 4+ 2.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7%

Rows: Torino goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Torino vs AC Milan goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Torino vs AC Milan

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Torino27%3.74
Draw28%3.59
AC Milan45%2.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.73
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.50
No34%2.98
Double chance1X (Torino or draw)55%1.83
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or AC Milan)73%1.37
Handicap -1AC Milan win by 2+16%6.33
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Torino and AC Milan recent form

Torino 2W 2D 2L
AC Milan 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Torino vs AC Milan head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Torino 2 · draws 1 · AC Milan 3.

TorinoDrawsAC Milan
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21AC Milan3-2TorinoSerie A
2025-12-08Torino2-3AC MilanSerie A
2025-02-22Torino2-1AC MilanSerie A
2024-08-17AC Milan2-2TorinoSerie A
2024-05-18Torino3-1AC MilanSerie A
2023-08-26AC Milan4-1TorinoSerie A

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match