Updated

Serie A · Matchday 1

Frosinone vs Juventus

· Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone· Referee Giovanni Ayroldi, Italy

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Juventus to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FrosinoneDrawJuventus

Why this pick: Frosinone vs Juventus

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Frosinone 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FrosinoneJuventus
1.41 xG per 90 2.04
1.25 npxG per 90 1.96
17.2 PPDA 11.4
5.4 Deep completions per 90 12.5
1.25 xPTS per 90 2.14

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Frosinone vs Juventus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFrosinoneDrawJuventus
Model56%24%19%
Market13%21%67%
Published24%22%55%
Edge+11%+1%-12%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Frosinone vs Juventus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 9 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.44Now 1.44 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Frosinone7.507.50+0.00
Draw4.334.65+0.32
Juventus1.441.44+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Frosinone and Juventus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.12Frosinone
1.21Juventus
Total expected goals
3.33
Attack rating (Frosinone / Juventus)
1.86 / 1.53
Defence rating (Frosinone / Juventus)
0.69 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Frosinone vs Juventus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 2.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 1 5.8% 11.0% 5.6% 2.2% 0.9% 2 8.0% 9.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.9% 3 5.7% 6.9% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 4.9% 6.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6%

Rows: Frosinone goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Frosinone vs Juventus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Frosinone vs Juventus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Frosinone24%4.22
Draw22%4.64
Juventus55%1.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.55
Under 2.535%2.83
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.75
Double chance1X (Frosinone or draw)45%2.21
12 (either side)78%1.27
X2 (draw or Juventus)76%1.31
Handicap -1Juventus win by 2+8%12.03
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Frosinone and Juventus recent form

Frosinone 5W 1D 0L
Juventus 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Frosinone vs Juventus head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Frosinone 0 · draws 0 · Juventus 2.

FrosinoneDrawsJuventus
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-02-25Juventus3-2FrosinoneSerie A
2023-12-23Frosinone1-2JuventusSerie A

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match