Updated

Serie A · Matchday 1

Roma vs Fiorentina

· Stadio Olimpico, Rome· Referee Matteo Marcenaro, Italy

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Roma to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RomaDrawFiorentina

Why this pick: Roma vs Fiorentina

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Roma 10, Fiorentina 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

RomaFiorentina
1.85 xG per 90 0.96
1.62 npxG per 90 0.96
10.8 PPDA 15.9
7.5 Deep completions per 90 5.7
1.91 xPTS per 90 1.04

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Roma vs Fiorentina: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRomaDrawFiorentina
Model58%24%18%
Market56%25%19%
Published57%25%19%
Edge+1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Roma vs Fiorentina odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Roma, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.57Now 1.70 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Roma1.571.70+0.13
Draw4.003.83-0.17
Fiorentina5.905.00-0.90

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Roma and Fiorentina expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.18Roma
1.19Fiorentina
Total expected goals
3.36
Attack rating (Roma / Fiorentina)
1.51 / 1.12
Defence rating (Roma / Fiorentina)
0.92 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Roma vs Fiorentina score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 2.3% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 1 5.8% 10.7% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8% 2 8.2% 9.7% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 6.0% 7.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 5.4% 6.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6%

Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Roma vs Fiorentina goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Roma vs Fiorentina

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Roma57%1.77
Draw25%4.06
Fiorentina19%5.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.88
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.73
Double chance1X (Roma or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Fiorentina)43%2.30
Handicap -1Roma win by 2+37%2.67
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Roma and Fiorentina recent form

Roma 5W 1D 0L
Fiorentina 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Roma absences

  • L. Pellegrini thigh injury
  • M. Bah knee injury

Fiorentina absences

  • F. Parisi knee injury
  • R. Sottil back injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Roma vs Fiorentina head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Roma 5 · draws 2 · Fiorentina 3.

RomaDrawsFiorentina
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-04Roma4-0FiorentinaSerie A
2025-10-05Fiorentina1-2RomaSerie A
2025-05-04Roma1-0FiorentinaSerie A
2024-10-27Fiorentina5-1RomaSerie A
2024-03-10Fiorentina2-2RomaSerie A
2023-12-10Roma1-1FiorentinaSerie A
2023-05-27Fiorentina2-1RomaSerie A
2023-01-15Roma2-0FiorentinaSerie A
2022-05-09Fiorentina2-0RomaSerie A
2021-08-22Roma3-1FiorentinaSerie A

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match