Updated

Serie A · Matchday 8

Lecce vs Juventus

· Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce· Referee Fabio Maresca

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Juventus to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LecceDrawJuventus

Why this pick: Lecce vs Juventus

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lecce 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LecceJuventus
1.60 xG per 90 1.74
1.60 npxG per 90 1.74
14.6 PPDA 10.0
4.2 Deep completions per 90 10.0
0.92 xPTS per 90 2.25

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Lecce vs Juventus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLecceDrawJuventus
Model12%19%69%
Market15%23%62%
Published15%22%64%
Edge-1%-1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lecce vs Juventus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.45Now 1.55 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lecce7.796.25-1.54
Draw4.194.20+0.01
Juventus1.451.55+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lecce and Juventus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.10Lecce
2.63Juventus
Total expected goals
3.73
Attack rating (Lecce / Juventus)
1.17 / 1.46
Defence rating (Lecce / Juventus)
1.51 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lecce vs Juventus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 4.9% 8.3% 7.2% 9.0% 1 1.3% 8.3% 9.1% 8.0% 9.9% 2 1.5% 3.8% 5.0% 4.4% 5.5% 3 0.5% 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%

Rows: Lecce goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lecce vs Juventus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lecce vs Juventus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lecce15%6.86
Draw22%4.57
Juventus64%1.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.57
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.73
Double chance1X (Lecce or draw)36%2.74
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Juventus)85%1.17
Handicap -1Juventus win by 2+49%2.05
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lecce and Juventus recent form

Lecce 2W 0D 4L
Juventus 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lecce at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Juventus away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lecce at home only, Juventus away only.

Injuries & availability

Lecce absences

  • I. Ilic thigh injury
  • L. Coulibaly thigh injury
  • M. Berisha thigh injury
  • S. Pierotti ankle injury

Juventus absences

  • A. Milik inactive
  • F. Conceicao shoulder injury
  • J. Ekhator muscle injury
  • K. Grabara knee injury
  • K. Thuram knee injury
  • K. Yildiz foot injury
  • M. Locatelli knee injury
  • N. Gonzalez calf injury
  • Z. Celik muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Lecce lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 30 W. Falcone
  2. 25 A. Gallo
  3. 44 Tiago Gabriel
  4. 4 Kialonda Gaspar
  5. 17 Danilo Veiga
  6. 14 Y. Maleh
  7. 79 O. Ngom
  8. 77 M. Kaba
  9. 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
  10. 69 W. Geubbels
  11. 11 K. N’Dri

Bench: M. Bleve, A. Dembélé, C. Ndaba, S. Fofana, N. Štulić, O. Gandelman, G. Jean, Paco Esteban, Olaf Gorter, E. Scott, A. Borbei, Joël Monteiro

Juventus lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 25 G. Vicario
  2. 15 P. Kalulu
  3. 26 J. Lucumí
  4. 3 Bremer
  5. 20 A. Cambiaso
  6. 8 T. Koopmeiners
  7. 12 Douglas Luiz
  8. 4 F. Gatti
  9. 22 W. McKennie
  10. 9 R. Kolo Muani
  11. 27 N. Woltemade

Bench: L. Kelly, E. Zhegrova, J. Boga, Kerim-Sam Alajbegović, C. Pinsoglio, D. Rugani, P. Sarr, J. Cabal, Neto

Lecce vs Juventus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Lecce 0 · draws 3 · Juventus 7.

LecceDrawsJuventus
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Lecce0-1JuventusSerie A
2026-01-03Juventus1-1LecceSerie A
2025-04-12Juventus2-1LecceSerie A
2024-12-01Lecce1-1JuventusSerie A
2024-01-21Lecce0-3JuventusSerie A
2023-09-26Juventus1-0LecceSerie A
2023-05-03Juventus2-1LecceSerie A
2022-10-29Lecce0-1JuventusSerie A
2020-06-26Juventus4-0LecceSerie A
2019-10-26Lecce1-1JuventusSerie A

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match