Updated

Serie A · Matchday 7

Frosinone vs Sassuolo

· PSC Arena, Frosinone· Referee Matteo Marchetti

Full time4 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Frosinone to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FrosinoneDrawSassuolo

Why this pick: Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Frosinone 10, Sassuolo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FrosinoneSassuolo
1.54 xG per 90 1.88
1.54 npxG per 90 1.88
13.3 PPDA 16.0
5.9 Deep completions per 90 8.1
1.10 xPTS per 90 1.43

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFrosinoneDrawSassuolo
Model54%25%21%
Market40%26%34%
Published44%25%31%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Frosinone below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Frosinone, 35 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.42Now 2.38 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Frosinone2.422.38-0.04
Draw3.433.72+0.29
Sassuolo2.902.78-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Frosinone and Sassuolo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09Frosinone
1.28Sassuolo
Total expected goals
3.37
Attack rating (Frosinone / Sassuolo)
1.38 / 1.30
Defence rating (Frosinone / Sassuolo)
0.84 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 2.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 1 5.3% 11.0% 5.9% 2.5% 1.1% 2 7.5% 9.6% 6.2% 2.6% 1.1% 3 5.2% 6.7% 4.3% 1.8% 0.8% 4+ 4.4% 5.7% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7%

Rows: Frosinone goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Frosinone44%2.30
Draw25%3.94
Sassuolo31%3.22
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.89
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.87
Double chance1X (Frosinone or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Sassuolo)56%1.77
Handicap -1Frosinone win by 2+34%2.96
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Frosinone and Sassuolo recent form

Frosinone 3W 2D 1L
Sassuolo 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Frosinone at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.

Sassuolo away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Frosinone at home only, Sassuolo away only.

Injuries & availability

Frosinone absences

  • F. Grillitsch thigh injury

Sassuolo absences

  • D. Boloca muscle injury
  • E. Pieragnolo knee injury
  • F. Leysen knee injury
  • I. Kone broken leg
  • J. Idzes muscle injury
  • Y. Paz knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Frosinone lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 L. Palmisani
  2. 79 G. Bracaglia
  3. 30 I. Monterisi
  4. 2 G. Cittadini
  5. 20 A. Oyono
  6. 14 G. Calò
  7. 73 P. Masini
  8. 17 G. Kvernadze
  9. 10 R. Schmid
  10. 7 F. Ghedjemis
  11. 9 A. Raimondo

Bench: G. Calvani, W. Amey, D. Bîrligea, M. Pisseri, Matteo Cichella, A. Zerbin, K. Akpoguma, A. El Azzouzi, S. Fini, L. Hasa, A. Terzić, Omar Fayed, T. Bobček, E. Tchato, S. Desplanches

Sassuolo lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 49 A. Murić
  2. 3 J. Doig
  3. 26 C. Odenthal
  4. 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
  5. 20 I. Van der Brempt
  6. 50 D. Bakola
  7. 18 N. Matić
  8. 42 K. Thorstvedt
  9. 45 A. Laurienté
  10. 94 S. Esposito
  11. 10 D. Berardi

Bench: Fali Candé, S. Walukiewicz, C. Volpato, A. Ghion, K. Bowie, G. Satalino, Vasilije Adžić, L. Skjellerup, B. Domínguez, Rafael Obrador, L. Lipani, S. Cinquegrano, I. Sulemana, E. Pieragnolo, S. Turati

Frosinone vs Sassuolo head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Frosinone 2 · draws 3 · Sassuolo 4.

FrosinoneDrawsSassuolo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-02Sassuolo1-1FrosinoneCoppa Italia
2025-05-13Sassuolo0-1FrosinoneSerie B
2024-12-14Frosinone1-2SassuoloSerie B
2024-03-09Sassuolo1-0FrosinoneSerie A
2023-09-17Frosinone4-2SassuoloSerie A
2019-05-05Sassuolo2-2FrosinoneSerie A
2018-12-16Frosinone0-2SassuoloSerie A
2016-05-08Frosinone0-1SassuoloSerie A
2016-01-06Sassuolo2-2FrosinoneSerie A

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match