Why this pick: Roma vs Genoa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Roma 10, Genoa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Roma vs Genoa: model vs market
| Source | Roma | Draw | Genoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 16% |
| Published | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.31.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Roma vs Genoa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 1.30 | 1.57 | +0.27 |
| Draw | 5.57 | 4.00 | -1.57 |
| Genoa | 9.05 | 6.08 | -2.98 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Roma and Genoa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Roma / Genoa)
- 1.73 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Roma / Genoa)
- 1.12 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Roma vs Genoa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Roma vs Genoa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Roma vs Genoa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Genoa | 17% | 5.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Roma or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Genoa) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Roma and Genoa recent form
Roma
2W 3D 1L
Genoa
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Roma at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Genoa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Roma at home only, Genoa away only.
Injuries & availability
Roma absences
- B. Cristante knee injury
-
D. Malen
suspended
-
M. Bah
knee injury
-
M. Kone
muscle injury
- M. Svilar toe injury
-
P. Dybala
muscle injury
Genoa absences
- Amorim ankle injury
- D. Sow injury
-
E. Havel
ankle injury
- F. Meichtry muscle injury
-
L. Colombo
ankle injury
-
L. Venturino
knee injury
- S. Otoa thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Roma lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 95 P. Gollini
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 5 E. Ndicka
- 26 L. Balerdi
- 2 D. Rensch
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 15 M. de Roon
- 77 E. Lulli
- 86 Rodrigo Mora
- 18 M. Soulé
- 9 S. Castro
Bench: L. Pellegrini, N. Molina, Hermoso, G. Mancini, D. Vásquez, Wesley, A. Arena, G. De Marzi, L. Paratici, D. Ghilardi
Genoa lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 22 J. Vásquez
- 5 L. Østigård
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 31 D. Puczka
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 10 Junior Messias
- 18 M. Osmajić
Bench: M. Mitaj, Alexsandro Amorim, T. Baldanzi, Vítinha, C. Drameh, S. Sabelli, Nikita Solodchenko, H. Traorè, S. Otoa, D. Sommariva, M. Vaz, F. Stolz
Roma vs Genoa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Roma 6 · draws 2 · Genoa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Genoa | 2-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2025-12-29 | Roma | 3-1 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2025-01-17 | Roma | 3-1 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2024-09-15 | Genoa | 1-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-05-19 | Roma | 1-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2023-09-28 | Genoa | 4-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2023-01-12 | Roma | 1-0 | Genoa | Coppa Italia |
| 2022-02-05 | Roma | 0-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2021-11-21 | Genoa | 0-2 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2021-03-07 | Roma | 1-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Frosinone v Sassuolo — match page 2026-10-16
- Venezia vs Napoli 2026-10-17
- Bologna vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Udinese vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Fiorentina vs Como 2026-10-18
- AC Milan vs Atalanta 2026-10-18
- Juventus vs Lazio — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monza vs Cagliari 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Roma, previous: Como v Roma analysis
- Roma, next: Napoli vs Roma: odds and pick
- Genoa, previous: Genoa – Fiorentina, 2026-10-10
- Genoa, next: Genoa – Venezia, 2026-10-25