Updated

Serie A · Matchday 7

AC Milan vs Atalanta

· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan· Referee Daniele Chiffi

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was AC Milan to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AC MilanDrawAtalanta

Why this pick: AC Milan vs Atalanta

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Atalanta 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AC MilanAtalanta
1.86 xG per 90 1.20
1.76 npxG per 90 1.20
13.9 PPDA 16.7
6.6 Deep completions per 90 6.3
1.55 xPTS per 90 0.88

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

AC Milan vs Atalanta: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAC MilanDrawAtalanta
Model55%24%21%
Market53%25%22%
Published53%25%22%
Edge+1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.33.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AC Milan vs Atalanta odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 37 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.85Now 1.81 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AC Milan1.851.81-0.04
Draw3.653.82+0.17
Atalanta4.164.30+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AC Milan and Atalanta expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.17AC Milan
1.33Atalanta
Total expected goals
3.50
Attack rating (AC Milan / Atalanta)
1.36 / 1.10
Defence rating (AC Milan / Atalanta)
1.03 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AC Milan vs Atalanta score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 2.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 1 4.8% 10.5% 5.8% 2.6% 1.2% 2 7.1% 9.4% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 5.1% 6.8% 4.6% 2.0% 0.9% 4+ 4.6% 6.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8%

Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AC Milan vs Atalanta goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AC Milan vs Atalanta

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AC Milan53%1.87
Draw25%4.05
Atalanta22%4.56
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.13
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.49
No33%3.02
Double chance1X (AC Milan or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Atalanta)47%2.14
Handicap -1AC Milan win by 2+35%2.89
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AC Milan and Atalanta recent form

AC Milan 2W 3D 1L
Atalanta 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AC Milan at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atalanta away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Atalanta away only.

Injuries & availability

AC Milan absences

  • A. Saelemaekers ankle injury
  • M. Gabbia thigh injury

Atalanta absences

  • E. Elmas suspended
  • F. Kessie calf injury
  • G. Raspadori thigh injury
  • G. Scalvini thigh injury
  • I. Hien muscle injury
  • K. Sulemana knee injury
  • O. Kossounou thigh injury
  • R. Bellanova thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

AC Milan lineup

  1. 12 A. Rabiot
  2. 11 C. Pulišić
  3. 22 Diego Moreira
  4. 9 Gonçalo Ramos
  5. 5 K. De Winter
  6. 14 L. Modrić
  7. 16 M. Maignan
  8. 34 Mario Gila
  9. 21 S. Chukwueze
  10. 31 S. Pavlović
  11. 80 Y. Musah

Bench: P. Estupiñán, R. Loftus-Cheek, S. Bocoum, O. Hutchinson, F. Tomori, C. Comotto, A. Jashari, D. Bartesaghi, V. Vladimirov, L. P. Bouyer, F. Terracciano, A. Cissè, F. Camarda, L. Torriani

Atalanta lineup

  1. 17 C. De Ketelaere
  2. 11 J. Rowe
  3. 47 L. Bernasconi
  4. 10 L. Samardžić
  5. 29 M. Carnesecchi
  6. 8 Mario Pasalic
  7. 90 N. Krstović
  8. 16 R. Bellanova
  9. 23 S. Kolašinac
  10. 31 T. Kristensen
  11. 13 Éderson

Bench: G. Scamacca, R. Obrić, J. Idele, D. K. Pounga, M. Sonzogni, M. Plaia, M. Sportiello, N. Zalewski, G. Gaetano, D. Zappacosta

AC Milan vs Atalanta head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: AC Milan 2 · draws 3 · Atalanta 5.

AC MilanDrawsAtalanta
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10AC Milan2-3AtalantaSerie A
2025-10-28Atalanta1-1AC MilanSerie A
2025-04-20AC Milan0-1AtalantaSerie A
2024-12-06Atalanta2-1AC MilanSerie A
2024-02-25AC Milan1-1AtalantaSerie A
2024-01-10AC Milan1-2AtalantaCoppa Italia
2023-12-09Atalanta3-2AC MilanSerie A
2023-02-26AC Milan2-0AtalantaSerie A
2022-08-21Atalanta1-1AC MilanSerie A
2022-05-15AC Milan2-0AtalantaSerie A

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match