Updated

Serie A · Matchday 7

Juventus vs Lazio

· Allianz Stadium, Turin· Referee Davide Massa

Full time0 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Juventus to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JuventusDrawLazio

Why this pick: Juventus vs Lazio

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

JuventusLazio
2.01 xG per 90 1.45
2.01 npxG per 90 1.38
9.7 PPDA 16.1
10.8 Deep completions per 90 6.6
2.43 xPTS per 90 1.42

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Juventus vs Lazio: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJuventusDrawLazio
Model70%20%10%
Market61%23%16%
Published63%22%14%
Edge+2%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.83.
  • The market prices Juventus below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Juventus vs Lazio odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 38 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.64Now 1.57 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Juventus1.641.57-0.07
Draw3.874.13+0.26
Lazio5.346.10+0.76

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Juventus and Lazio expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.38Juventus
0.83Lazio
Total expected goals
3.21
Attack rating (Juventus / Lazio)
1.57 / 1.14
Defence rating (Juventus / Lazio)
0.61 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juventus vs Lazio score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1 8.0% 9.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 2 11.5% 9.5% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 9.1% 7.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 9.5% 7.9% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2%

Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juventus vs Lazio goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juventus vs Lazio

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Juventus63%1.58
Draw22%4.46
Lazio14%7.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.60
Under 2.538%2.65
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.11
Double chance1X (Juventus or draw)86%1.17
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Lazio)37%2.73
Handicap -1Juventus win by 2+49%2.03
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Juventus and Lazio recent form

Juventus 3W 2D 1L
Lazio 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Juventus at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Lazio away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Juventus at home only, Lazio away only.

Injuries & availability

Juventus absences

  • A. Milik inactive
  • J. Ekhator muscle injury
  • K. Grabara knee injury
  • K. Thuram knee injury
  • K. Yildiz foot injury
  • M. Locatelli knee injury

Lazio absences

  • A. Furlanetto knee injury
  • A. Gudmundsson shoulder injury
  • A. Marusic muscle injury
  • F. Gatto injury
  • M. Cancellieri leg injury
  • N. Rovella calf injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Juventus lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 25 G. Vicario
  2. 26 J. Lucumí
  3. 3 Bremer
  4. 15 P. Kalulu
  5. 2 Z. Çelik
  6. 12 Douglas Luiz
  7. 29 P. Sarr
  8. 22 W. McKennie
  9. 17 Kerim-Sam Alajbegović
  10. 31 N. González
  11. 9 R. Kolo Muani

Bench: F. Gatti, L. Kelly, Francisco Conceição, T. Koopmeiners, E. Zhegrova, J. Boga, A. Cambiaso, C. Pinsoglio, D. Rugani, N. Woltemade, J. Cabal, Neto

Lazio lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 35 C. Mandas
  2. 17 Nuno Tavares
  3. 25 O. Provstgaard
  4. 37 J. Šutalo
  5. 15 R. Floriani Mussolini
  6. 24 K. Taylor
  7. 21 R. Belahyane
  8. 16 D. Frattesi
  9. 10 M. Zaccagni
  10. 14 T. Noslin
  11. 11 G. Isaksen

Bench: Diogo Leite, L. Pellegrini, D. Doekhi, F. Dele-Bashiru, A. Pinamonti, Pedraza, A. Przyborek, M. Lazzari, D. Cataldi, E. Motta, D. Renzetti, F. Serra, V. Farcomeni

Juventus vs Lazio head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Juventus 4 · draws 2 · Lazio 4.

JuventusDrawsLazio
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-08Juventus2-2LazioSerie A
2025-10-26Lazio1-0JuventusSerie A
2025-05-10Lazio1-1JuventusSerie A
2024-10-19Juventus1-0LazioSerie A
2024-04-23Lazio2-1JuventusCoppa Italia
2024-04-02Juventus2-0LazioCoppa Italia
2024-03-30Lazio1-0JuventusSerie A
2023-09-16Juventus3-1LazioSerie A
2023-04-08Lazio2-1JuventusSerie A
2023-02-02Juventus1-0LazioCoppa Italia

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match