Updated

Serie A · Matchday 7

Monza vs Cagliari

· Stadio Brianteo, Monza· Referee Andrea Calzavara

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Monza to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MonzaDrawCagliari

Why this pick: Monza vs Cagliari

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monza 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MonzaCagliari
1.60 xG per 90 1.45
1.52 npxG per 90 1.36
18.3 PPDA 20.7
4.2 Deep completions per 90 4.0
1.34 xPTS per 90 1.22

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Monza vs Cagliari: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMonzaDrawCagliari
Model45%26%29%
Market41%29%30%
Published42%28%30%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.55.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Monza vs Cagliari odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Monza, 40 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.16Now 2.30 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Monza2.162.30+0.14
Draw3.183.25+0.07
Cagliari3.653.20-0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Monza and Cagliari expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.94Monza
1.55Cagliari
Total expected goals
3.49
Attack rating (Monza / Cagliari)
1.18 / 0.99
Defence rating (Monza / Cagliari)
1.32 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Monza vs Cagliari score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 2.9% 3.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1 4.1% 11.0% 7.1% 3.7% 2.0% 2 5.7% 8.9% 6.9% 3.6% 1.9% 3 3.7% 5.8% 4.5% 2.3% 1.3% 4+ 2.8% 4.4% 3.4% 1.7% 1.0%

Rows: Monza goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Monza vs Cagliari goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Monza vs Cagliari

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Monza42%2.37
Draw28%3.54
Cagliari30%3.39
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.48
Under 2.532%3.10
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.26
Double chance1X (Monza or draw)70%1.42
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Cagliari)58%1.73
Handicap -1Monza win by 2+26%3.78
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Monza and Cagliari recent form

Monza 2W 1D 3L
Cagliari 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Monza at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cagliari away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Monza at home only, Cagliari away only.

Injuries & availability

Monza absences

  • E. Zeballos knee injury
  • I. Toure knee injury
  • J. Ziolkowski foot injury
  • L. Lucchesi suspended
  • M. Pessina knee injury
  • Y. Maye muscle injury

Cagliari absences

  • M. Felici knee injury
  • R. Idrissi knee injury
  • Y. Trepy injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Monza lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 N. Törnqvist
  2. 44 A. Carboni
  3. 2 S. Goglichidze
  4. 60 E. Kouadio
  5. 7 Ricardo Mangas
  6. 14 E. Akinsanmiro
  7. 8 M. Ondoa
  8. 19 S. Birindelli
  9. 46 Jay Robinson
  10. 47 Dany Mota
  11. 9 Gustavo Varela

Bench: V. Antov, P. Cutrone, O. Forson, C. Ngonge, D. Thiam, L. Colombo, A. Bakoune, P. Ciurria, A. Colpani, A. Strajnar, M. Mout, M. Folorunsho

Cagliari lineup · 4-3-1-2

  1. 1 E. Caprile
  2. 33 A. Obert
  3. 15 J. Rodríguez
  4. 26 Y. Mina
  5. 2 Zé Pedro
  6. 4 A. Romano
  7. 6 H. Winks
  8. 8 M. Adopo
  9. 70 D. Maldini
  10. 18 M'Bala Nzola
  11. 31 P. Mendy

Bench: Kevin Carlos, J. Fazzini, A. Sherri, A. Deiola, R. Ciervo, R. Gagliardini, R. Kofler, B. Radunović, G. Aurelio, J. Liteta, Y. Sugawara, Ivan Stoyanov Sulev, A. Fadera, Y. Massolin

Monza vs Cagliari head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Monza 1 · draws 1 · Cagliari 2.

MonzaDrawsCagliari
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-30Cagliari3-0MonzaSerie A
2025-01-05Monza1-2CagliariSerie A
2024-03-16Monza1-0CagliariSerie A
2023-11-26Cagliari1-1MonzaSerie A

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match