Why this pick: Fiorentina vs Como
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fiorentina 10, Como 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Fiorentina vs Como: model vs market
| Source | Fiorentina | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 23% | 42% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 29% | 25% | 45% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Fiorentina vs Como odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Como, 37 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 3.36 | 3.46 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.67 | -0.03 |
| Como | 2.07 | 2.05 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fiorentina and Como expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.03
- Attack rating (Fiorentina / Como)
- 1.22 / 1.61
- Defence rating (Fiorentina / Como)
- 1.12 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fiorentina vs Como score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Como goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fiorentina vs Como goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fiorentina vs Como
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 29% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Como | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fiorentina or draw) | 55% | 1.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Como) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fiorentina and Como recent form
Fiorentina
2W 1D 3L
Como
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fiorentina at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Como away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fiorentina at home only, Como away only.
Injuries & availability
Fiorentina absences
-
A. Atta
abdominal strain
-
F. Parisi
knee injury
- L. Ranieri leg injury
-
R. Sottil
back injury
Como absences
-
A. Diao
thigh injury
-
M. Kean
leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Fiorentina lineup
- 25 A. Njie
- 27 C. Ndour
- 43 David de Gea
- 30 Franco Mastantuono
- 5 M. Pongračić
- 32 Mateo Pellegrino
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 28 Pote
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 33 Viery
- 20 Álex Jiménez
Bench: Dodô, M. Brescianini, João Mário, L. Lezzerini, Valde, Beto, W. Gnonto, C. Inao Oulaï, O. Christensen, Arnis Ademi
Como lineup
- 1 J. Butez
- 7 L. da Cunha
- 6 Luis Milla
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 2 M. Kempf
- 30 M. Liberali
- 10 N. Paz
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 9 T. Douvikas
- 27 Yan Couto
- 3 Álex Valle
Bench: Jacobo Ramón Naveros, M. Perrone, A. Dossena, A. Lahdo, Kaiki, Jesús Rodríguez, E. Goldaniga, M. Baturina, S. Ricci, M. Vigorito, I. Smolčić, J. Addai, Willy Kambwala Ndengushi, Robert Sánchez
Fiorentina vs Como head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Fiorentina 2 · draws 0 · Como 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Como | 1-2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2026-01-27 | Fiorentina | 1-3 | Como | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-09-21 | Fiorentina | 1-2 | Como | Serie A |
| 2025-02-16 | Fiorentina | 0-2 | Como | Serie A |
| 2024-11-24 | Como | 0-2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Frosinone v Sassuolo — match page 2026-10-16
- Venezia vs Napoli 2026-10-17
- Bologna vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Roma v Genoa — match page 2026-10-17
- Udinese vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- AC Milan vs Atalanta 2026-10-18
- Juventus vs Lazio — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monza vs Cagliari 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Fiorentina, previous: Genoa – Fiorentina, 2026-10-10
- Fiorentina, next: Inter vs Fiorentina prediction
- Como, previous: Como v Roma analysis
- Como, next: Como v Sassuolo analysis