Why this pick: Inter vs Fiorentina
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Inter 10, Fiorentina 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Inter vs Fiorentina: model vs market
| Source | Inter | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Published | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Inter vs Fiorentina odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1.38 | 1.36 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 5.10 | 5.50 | +0.40 |
| Fiorentina | 7.50 | 8.00 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter and Fiorentina expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.42
- Attack rating (Inter / Fiorentina)
- 1.76 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Inter / Fiorentina)
- 1.09 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter vs Fiorentina score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter vs Fiorentina goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter vs Fiorentina
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 68% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.55 | |
| Fiorentina | 14% | 6.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.29 |
| No | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Fiorentina) | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 40% | 2.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Inter and Fiorentina recent form
Inter
4W 1D 1L
Fiorentina
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Fiorentina away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Fiorentina away only.
Injuries & availability
Inter absences
- B. Pavard thigh injury
- C. Jones thigh injury
-
J. Stones
injury
-
L. Martinez
thigh injury
- Luis Henrique thigh injury
-
M. Spinacce
inactive
Fiorentina absences
-
A. Atta
abdominal strain
-
F. Parisi
knee injury
- L. Ranieri leg injury
-
R. Sottil
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Inter lineup · 3-5-2
- 49 I. Provedel
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 25 M. Akanji
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 30 Carlos Augusto
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 23 N. Barella
- 17 A. Diouf
- 94 F. Esposito
- 9 M. Thuram
Bench: Josep Martínez, A. Stanković, P. Zieliński, P. Sučić, R. Di Gennaro, A. Bonny, F. Dimarco, L. Bovio, M. Mosconi, L. Jakirović, M. Lavelli, D. Spence
Fiorentina lineup · 4-3-3
- 43 David de Gea
- 21 Valde
- 5 M. Pongračić
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 20 Álex Jiménez
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 27 C. Ndour
- 25 A. Njie
- 32 Mateo Pellegrino
- 30 Franco Mastantuono
Bench: Dodô, João Mário, L. Lezzerini, Beto, Pote, W. Gnonto, Viery, C. Inao Oulaï, O. Christensen, B. Mazzeo
Inter vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Inter 6 · draws 2 · Fiorentina 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Fiorentina | 1-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-10-29 | Inter | 3-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-02-10 | Inter | 2-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-02-06 | Fiorentina | 3-0 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-01-28 | Fiorentina | 0-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2023-09-03 | Inter | 4-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2023-05-24 | Fiorentina | 1-2 | Inter | Coppa Italia |
| 2023-04-01 | Inter | 0-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2022-10-22 | Fiorentina | 3-4 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2022-03-19 | Inter | 1-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Torino vs Monza 2026-10-23
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Inter, previous: Bologna vs Inter: odds and pick
- Inter, next: Venezia v Inter analysis
- Fiorentina, previous: Fiorentina vs Como prediction
- Fiorentina, next: Fiorentina vs Atalanta: odds and pick