Why this pick: Napoli vs Roma
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Napoli 10, Roma 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Napoli vs Roma: model vs market
| Source | Napoli | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Edge | -1% | -2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.91.
- The market prices Roma below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Napoli vs Roma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 2.81 | 2.70 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.35 | -0.10 |
| Roma | 2.46 | 2.67 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Napoli and Roma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.32
- Attack rating (Napoli / Roma)
- 1.51 / 1.79
- Defence rating (Napoli / Roma)
- 1.13 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Napoli vs Roma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Roma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Napoli vs Roma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Napoli vs Roma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Roma | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Napoli or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Roma) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 30% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Napoli and Roma recent form
Napoli
3W 1D 2L
Roma
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Napoli at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Roma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Napoli at home only, Roma away only.
Injuries & availability
Napoli absences
-
A. Buongiorno
knee injury
-
Alisson Santos
muscle injury
- C. Favasuli thigh injury
- David Neres thigh injury
Roma absences
-
L. Pellegrini
thigh injury
-
M. Bah
knee injury
-
M. Kone
muscle injury
- M. Svilar toe injury
-
P. Dybala
calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Napoli lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 A. Meret
- 17 M. Olivera
- 5 B. Badiashile
- 16 Rafa Marín
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 8 S. McTominay
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 70 N. Lang
- 19 R. Højlund
- 21 M. Politano
Bench: B. Gilmour, N. Contini, L. Lucca, Giovane, A. Vergara, S. Beukema, V. Milinković-Savić, Luca Marianucci, L. Spinazzola, S. Lobotka
Roma lineup · 3-5-2
- 95 P. Gollini
- 22 Hermoso
- 5 E. Ndicka
- 23 G. Mancini
- 43 Wesley
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 4 B. Cristante
- 15 M. de Roon
- 2 D. Rensch
- 14 D. Malen
- 18 M. Soulé
Bench: K. Koulierakis, S. Castro, N. Molina, L. Balerdi, D. Vásquez, G. De Marzi, E. Lulli, Rodrigo Mora, D. Ghilardi
Napoli vs Roma head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Napoli 4 · draws 5 · Roma 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Napoli | 2-2 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2025-11-30 | Roma | 0-1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2025-02-02 | Roma | 1-1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-11-24 | Napoli | 1-0 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-04-28 | Napoli | 2-2 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2023-12-23 | Roma | 2-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2023-01-29 | Napoli | 2-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2022-10-23 | Roma | 0-1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2022-04-18 | Napoli | 1-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2021-10-24 | Roma | 0-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Torino vs Monza 2026-10-23
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Napoli, previous: Venezia v Napoli analysis
- Napoli, next: Monza vs Napoli prediction
- Roma, previous: Roma v Genoa analysis
- Roma, next: Roma v Cagliari analysis