Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari: model vs market
| Source | Parma Calcio 1913 | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 30% | 43% |
| Market | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| Published | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cagliari below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cagliari, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 2.55 | 2.62 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.01 | 3.00 | -0.01 |
| Cagliari | 3.02 | 3.00 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Cagliari expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Cagliari)
- 0.85 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Cagliari)
- 1.12 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Cagliari | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Cagliari) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cagliari win by 2+ | 22% | 4.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Cagliari recent form
Parma Calcio 1913
3W 0D 3L
Cagliari
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 0 · draws 1 · Cagliari 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-09-13 | Cagliari | 2-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2025-02-09 | Cagliari | 2-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2024-09-30 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-3 | Cagliari | Serie A |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Udinese vs Como — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Inter vs Monza 2026-08-22
- Genoa v Napoli — match page 2026-08-22
- Frosinone vs Juventus 2026-08-23
- Venezia v Lecce — match page 2026-08-23
- Atalanta vs Sassuolo — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Torino vs AC Milan 2026-08-23
- Bologna v Lazio — match page 2026-08-24
Before and after this match
- Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Sassuolo prediction
- Parma Calcio 1913, next: Juventus – Parma Calcio 1913, 2026-08-29
- Cagliari, previous: AC Milan vs Cagliari prediction
- Cagliari, next: Cagliari vs Inter prediction