Updated

Serie A · Matchday 7

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino

· Ennio Tardini, Parma· Referee Giovanni Ayroldi

Full time0 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Torino to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Parma Calcio 1913DrawTorino

Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Torino 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Parma Calcio 1913Torino
0.81 xG per 90 1.42
0.81 npxG per 90 1.42
14.6 PPDA 16.2
4.1 Deep completions per 90 4.3
0.61 xPTS per 90 1.22

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParma Calcio 1913DrawTorino
Model22%29%49%
Market30%31%39%
Published28%30%42%
Edge-2%0%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Torino below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Torino, 40 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.47Now 2.43 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Parma Calcio 19133.203.13-0.07
Draw3.013.10+0.09
Torino2.472.43-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Parma Calcio 1913 and Torino expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.04Parma Calcio 1913
1.64Torino
Total expected goals
2.68
Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Torino)
0.74 / 0.97
Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Torino)
1.43 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 8.9% 9.2% 5.0% 3.0% 1 4.8% 14.0% 9.6% 5.2% 3.1% 2 3.7% 6.1% 5.0% 2.7% 1.6% 3 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Torino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Parma Calcio 191328%3.55
Draw30%3.31
Torino42%2.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1.99
Under 2.550%2.01
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.20
Double chance1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw)58%1.71
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Torino)72%1.39
Handicap -1Torino win by 2+27%3.65
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Parma Calcio 1913 and Torino recent form

Parma Calcio 1913 1W 1D 4L
Torino 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Parma Calcio 1913 at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Torino away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Parma Calcio 1913 at home only, Torino away only.

Injuries & availability

Parma Calcio 1913 absences

  • H. Nicolussi Caviglia thigh injury
  • L. Valenti coach's decision
  • N. Elphege illness
  • P. Almqvist calf injury

Torino absences

  • E. Ilkhan muscle injury
  • F. Israel shoulder injury
  • N. Fortini thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Parma Calcio 1913 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 40 E. Corvi
  2. 34 Diego Carlos
  3. 37 M. Troilo
  4. 15 E. Del Prato
  5. 14 E. Valeri
  6. 80 G. Fabbian
  7. 16 M. Keita
  8. 10 Adrián Bernabé
  9. 27 S. Britschgi
  10. 19 E. Touré
  11. 9 D. Romero

Bench: A. N'Diaye, V. Sierro, B. Cremaschi, M. Frigan, S. Ghidotti, T. De Martis, F. Carboni, G. Daffara, C. Ordoñez, Abdou Konate, D. Diallo, D. Drobnic, S. Lontani

Torino lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 20 Lucas Perri
  2. 23 Saúl Coco
  3. 44 A. Ismajli
  4. 15 P. Comuzzo
  5. 77 A. Cacciamani
  6. 21 Daniel Bragança
  7. 8 R. Mandragora
  8. 45 R. Belghali
  9. 10 N. Vlašić
  10. 19 C. Adams
  11. 18 G. Simeone

Bench: N. Patterson, C. Biraghi, E. Cömert, Z. Aboukhlal, P. Pellegri, G. Oristanio, R. Rodríguez, S. Kulenović, C. Casadei, D. Mascardi, K. Fitz-Jim, G. Gineitis, L. Siviero, D. Zapata

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 3 · draws 4 · Torino 3.

Parma Calcio 1913DrawsTorino
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-13Torino4-1Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2025-09-29Parma Calcio 19132-1TorinoSerie A
2025-03-08Parma Calcio 19132-2TorinoSerie A
2025-01-05Torino0-0Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2021-05-03Torino1-0Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2021-01-03Parma Calcio 19130-3TorinoSerie A
2020-06-20Torino1-1Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2019-09-30Parma Calcio 19133-2TorinoSerie A
2019-04-06Parma Calcio 19130-0TorinoSerie A
2018-11-10Torino1-2Parma Calcio 1913Serie A

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match