Aston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe: Prediction vs Result 14.10.26

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Aston Villa	Draw	Fenerbahçe
Model	27%	26%	47%
Market	56%	24%	20%
Published	49%	24%	27%
Edge	-7%	+1%	+7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aston Villa, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.72Now 1.70 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Aston Villa	1.72	1.70	-0.02
Draw	3.90	4.02	+0.12
Fenerbahçe	4.50	4.75	+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Aston Villa

1.74Fenerbahçe

Total expected goals: 2.99
Attack rating (Aston Villa / Fenerbahçe): 1.13 / 1.37
Defence rating (Aston Villa / Fenerbahçe): 0.99 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 7.6% 7.6% 4.4% 2.8% 1 5.2% 12.0% 9.5% 5.5% 3.5% 2 3.9% 6.9% 6.0% 3.4% 2.2% 3 1.6% 2.9% 2.5% 1.4% 0.9% 4+ 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Fenerbahçe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Aston Villa	49%	2.05
	Draw	24%	4.12
	Fenerbahçe	27%	3.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.74
	Under 2.5	42%	2.36
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.66
	No	40%	2.51
Double chance	1X (Aston Villa or draw)	73%	1.37
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Fenerbahçe)	51%	1.95
Handicap -1	Aston Villa win by 2+	12%	8.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe recent form

Aston Villa 3W 2D 1L

Fenerbahçe 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fenerbahçe away

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-0
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Fenerbahçe away only.