Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

· Chobani Stadium, Istanbul· Referee Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Fenerbahçe to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FenerbahçeDrawSlavia Praha

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFenerbahçeDrawSlavia Praha
Model47%27%26%
Market61%21%18%
Published57%23%20%
Edge-3%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.13.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fenerbahçe, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.62Now 1.58 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fenerbahçe1.621.58-0.04
Draw4.154.50+0.35
Slavia Praha4.985.30+0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fenerbahçe and Slavia Praha expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.59Fenerbahçe
1.13Slavia Praha
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (Fenerbahçe / Slavia Praha)
1.28 / 1.07
Defence rating (Fenerbahçe / Slavia Praha)
0.81 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 6.2% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 1 9.3% 13.0% 6.7% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.3% 9.4% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 3 4.4% 5.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.5% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Fenerbahçe goals. Columns: Slavia Praha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fenerbahçe57%1.75
Draw23%4.39
Slavia Praha20%5.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.05
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.82
No45%2.23
Double chance1X (Fenerbahçe or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Slavia Praha)43%2.34
Handicap -1Fenerbahçe win by 2+25%4.01
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fenerbahçe and Slavia Praha recent form

Fenerbahçe 3W 2D 1L
Slavia Praha 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fenerbahçe at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Slavia Praha away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Fenerbahçe at home only, Slavia Praha away only.

Injuries & availability

Fenerbahçe absences

  • A. Diouf off the roster
  • A. Fall off the roster
  • J. Oosterwolde achilles tendon injury
  • M. Asensio knee injury
  • M. Muldur knee injury
  • M. Yandas off the roster
  • N. Kante knock

Slavia Praha absences

  • A. Ouanda injury
  • D. Jurasek thigh injury
  • E. Pitak health problems
  • H. Kante off the roster
  • I. Ogbu achilles tendon injury
  • I. Schranz health problems
  • O. Kolar off the roster
  • S. Chaloupek muscle injury
  • T. Chory coach's decision

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Fenerbahçe lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Ederson
  2. 3 A. Brown
  3. 15 N. Aké
  4. 37 M. Škriniar
  5. 27 Nélson Semedo
  6. 6 M. Guendouzi
  7. 91 N. Kanté
  8. 7 K. Aktürkoğlu
  9. 11 M. Greenwood
  10. 70 O. Aydın
  11. 19 V. Muriqi

Bench: İ. Yüksek, R. Lukaku, T. Çetin, Y. Demir, İ. Kahveci, K. Peprah Oppong, L. Mercan, B. Elmaz, M. Günok, N. Dorgeles, O. Mimović

Slavia Praha lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 35 J. Markovič
  2. 6 A. N'Guessan
  3. 4 D. Zima
  4. 27 T. Vlček
  5. 8 O. Kubiak
  6. 30 W. Nowak
  7. 16 D. Moses
  8. 15 M. E. Suleiman
  9. 17 L. Provod
  10. 20 E. Ayaosi
  11. 10 D. Šturm

Bench: T. Holeš, M. Chytil, S. Isife, T. Diakité, M. Sadílek, N. Domchak, Pavel Kacor, Adam Rezek, M. Konečný, D. Barcot, Petr Potměšil

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Fenerbahçe 1 · draws 0 · Slavia Praha 2.

FenerbahçeDrawsSlavia Praha
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-11-28Slavia Praha1-2FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League
2022-02-24Slavia Praha3-2FenerbahçeUEFA Europa Conference League
2022-02-17Fenerbahçe2-3Slavia PrahaUEFA Europa Conference League

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match