Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC

· Stamford Bridge, London· Referee Chris Kavanagh

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was AEK Athens FC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Shakhtar DonetskDrawAEK Athens FC

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShakhtar DonetskDrawAEK Athens FC
Model35%32%33%
Market36%28%36%
Published35%29%36%
Edge0%+1%-1%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AEK Athens FC, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.55Now 2.61 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Shakhtar Donetsk2.622.67+0.05
Draw3.503.41-0.09
AEK Athens FC2.552.61+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Shakhtar Donetsk
1.10AEK Athens FC
Total expected goals
2.22
Attack rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / AEK Athens FC)
1.25 / 1.53
Defence rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / AEK Athens FC)
0.56 / 0.47

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.2% 10.6% 6.6% 2.4% 0.8% 1 10.9% 14.7% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 6.8% 7.5% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 3 2.6% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk goals. Columns: AEK Athens FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 38%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shakhtar Donetsk35%2.82
Draw29%3.47
AEK Athens FC36%2.80
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538%2.62
Under 2.562%1.62
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.16
No54%1.86
Double chance1X (Shakhtar Donetsk or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or AEK Athens FC)65%1.55
Handicap -1AEK Athens FC win by 2+14%7.17
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC recent form

Shakhtar Donetsk 4W 1D 1L
AEK Athens FC 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AEK Athens FC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Shakhtar Donetsk at home only, AEK Athens FC away only.

Expected lineups

Shakhtar Donetsk lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 31 D. Riznyk
  2. 13 Pedrinho
  3. 22 M. Matvienko
  4. 5 V. Bondar
  5. 17 Vinícius Tobias
  6. 6 Marlon Gomes
  7. 11 Newertton
  8. 27 O. Ocheretko
  9. 10 Pedrinho
  10. 30 Alisson Santana
  11. 9 Kauã Elias

Bench: L. Traoré, D. Kryskiv, O. Karavaev, K. Fesyun, V. Tsukanov, Gabriel Carvalho, E. Nazaryna, Lucas Ferreira, Luca Meirelles, G. Mendoza, Bruninho

AEK Athens FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 91 A. Brignoli
  2. 3 S. Pilios
  3. 44 Filipe Relvas
  4. 2 H. Moukoudi
  5. 12 L. Rota
  6. 11 A. Koita
  7. 18 R. Marin
  8. 27 M. Vitális
  9. 14 L. Majer
  10. 9 L. Jović
  11. 90 Zini

Bench: K. Kairinen, M. Gaćinović, O. Zubkov, K. Arriaga, B. Varga, P. Mantalos, D. Vida, C. Lykogiannis, João Mário, Marios Balamotis

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 0 · draws 0 · AEK Athens FC 1.

Shakhtar DonetskDrawsAEK Athens FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-07-13AEK Athens FC5-0Shakhtar DonetskFriendlies Clubs

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match