Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan· Referee Harm Osmers

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Inter to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
InterDrawShakhtar Donetsk

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInterDrawShakhtar Donetsk
Model37%25%39%
Market78%14%8%
Published68%16%16%
Edge-10%+3%+8%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Inter, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.20Now 1.23 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Inter1.201.23+0.03
Draw7.006.98-0.02
Shakhtar Donetsk11.0011.62+0.62

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66Inter
1.71Shakhtar Donetsk
Total expected goals
3.37
Attack rating (Inter / Shakhtar Donetsk)
1.52 / 1.29
Defence rating (Inter / Shakhtar Donetsk)
1.01 / 0.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 4.9% 5.0% 2.9% 1.8% 1 4.7% 10.7% 8.4% 4.8% 3.0% 2 4.7% 8.1% 6.9% 4.0% 2.5% 3 2.6% 4.5% 3.8% 2.2% 1.4% 4+ 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8%

Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Shakhtar Donetsk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Inter68%1.48
Draw16%6.07
Shakhtar Donetsk16%6.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.53
Under 2.534%2.90
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.07
Double chance1X (Inter or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)84%1.20
X2 (draw or Shakhtar Donetsk)32%3.09
Handicap -1Inter win by 2+19%5.31
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk recent form

Inter 3W 1D 2L
Shakhtar Donetsk 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Inter at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Shakhtar Donetsk away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Shakhtar Donetsk away only.

Injuries & availability

Inter absences

  • B. Pavard thigh injury
  • C. Jones thigh injury
  • J. Stones injury
  • L. Martinez thigh injury

Shakhtar Donetsk absences

  • A. Ghram injury
  • D. Tvardovskyi off the roster
  • Eguinaldo shoulder injury
  • I. Azarovi knee injury
  • K. Fesyun illness
  • M. Shved off the roster
  • Marlon muscle injury
  • P. Obah off the roster
  • T. Puzankov off the roster
  • V. Korniyenko off the roster

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Inter lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Josep Martínez
  2. 30 Carlos Augusto
  3. 95 A. Bastoni
  4. 25 M. Akanji
  5. 32 F. Dimarco
  6. 8 P. Sučić
  7. 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
  8. 23 N. Barella
  9. 99 D. Spence
  10. 9 M. Thuram
  11. 14 A. Bonny

Bench: A. Stanković, P. Zieliński, Luis Henrique, R. Di Gennaro, A. Diouf, H. Mkhitaryan, Y. Bisseck, L. Bovio, M. Mosconi, I. Provedel, F. Esposito

Shakhtar Donetsk lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 31 D. Riznyk
  2. 13 Pedrinho
  3. 22 M. Matvienko
  4. 5 V. Bondar
  5. 17 Vinícius Tobias
  6. 27 O. Ocheretko
  7. 77 G. Mendoza
  8. 6 Marlon Gomes
  9. 10 Pedrinho
  10. 30 Alisson Santana
  11. 9 Kauã Elias

Bench: L. Traoré, D. Kryskiv, Newertton, Isaque, A. Ghram, O. Karavaev, K. Fesyun, Gabriel Carvalho, E. Nazaryna, Lucas Ferreira, Luca Meirelles, Bruninho

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Inter 2 · draws 3 · Shakhtar Donetsk 0.

InterDrawsShakhtar Donetsk
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-11-24Inter2-0Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
2021-09-28Shakhtar Donetsk0-0InterUEFA Champions League
2020-12-09Inter0-0Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
2020-10-27Shakhtar Donetsk0-0InterUEFA Champions League
2020-08-17Inter5-0Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Europa League

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match