Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC

· Etihad Stadium, Manchester· Referee Willy Delajod

Full time5 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Manchester City to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Manchester CityDrawAEK Athens FC

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceManchester CityDrawAEK Athens FC
Model37%24%39%
Market86%9%5%
Published73%13%13%
Edge-12%+4%+9%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.06Now 1.12 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Manchester City1.061.12+0.06
Draw12.5010.09-2.41
AEK Athens FC34.5019.50-15.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Manchester City and AEK Athens FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Manchester City
1.75AEK Athens FC
Total expected goals
3.44
Attack rating (Manchester City / AEK Athens FC)
1.42 / 1.45
Defence rating (Manchester City / AEK Athens FC)
0.93 / 0.63

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 4.7% 4.9% 2.9% 1.9% 1 4.4% 10.4% 8.3% 4.9% 3.2% 2 4.6% 8.0% 7.0% 4.1% 2.7% 3 2.6% 4.5% 4.0% 2.3% 1.5% 4+ 1.6% 2.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.9%

Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: AEK Athens FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Manchester City73%1.36
Draw13%7.57
AEK Athens FC13%7.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%3.02
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.46
No32%3.16
Double chance1X (Manchester City or draw)87%1.16
12 (either side)87%1.15
X2 (draw or AEK Athens FC)27%3.75
Handicap -1Manchester City win by 2+19%5.28
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Manchester City and AEK Athens FC recent form

Manchester City 5W 0D 1L
AEK Athens FC 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Manchester City at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

AEK Athens FC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester City at home only, AEK Athens FC away only.

Expected lineups

Manchester City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 G. Donnarumma
  2. 24 J. Gvardiol
  3. 45 A. Khusanov
  4. 3 Rúben Dias
  5. 82 R. Lewis
  6. 17 E. Fernández
  7. 5 E. Anderson
  8. 47 P. Foden
  9. 10 R. Cherki
  10. 37 Allan
  11. 75 F. Samba

Bench: M. Guéhi, I. Ndiaye, E. Haaland, J. Doku, M. Bettinelli, R. Aït-Nouri, Vitor Nunes, G. Rulli, A. Bouaddi, R. McAidoo, K. Braithwaite

AEK Athens FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 91 A. Brignoli
  2. 3 S. Pilios
  3. 44 Filipe Relvas
  4. 2 H. Moukoudi
  5. 12 L. Rota
  6. 23 João Mário
  7. 18 R. Marin
  8. 16 K. Arriaga
  9. 14 L. Majer
  10. 9 L. Jović
  11. 19 B. Varga

Bench: K. Kairinen, M. Gaćinović, O. Zubkov, A. Koita, P. Mantalos, D. Vida, C. Lykogiannis, M. Vitális, Marios Balamotis, Zini

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match