Why this pick: Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayern Munich 10, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market
| Source | Bayern Munich | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Market | 75% | 14% | 10% |
| Published | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.26 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 21 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 1.34 | 1.25 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 6.30 | 6.67 | +0.38 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 8.95 | 9.00 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bayern Munich and VfB Stuttgart expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.84
- Attack rating (Bayern Munich / VfB Stuttgart)
- 1.70 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Bayern Munich / VfB Stuttgart)
- 0.91 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bayern Munich goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 73% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.60 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 12% | 8.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bayern Munich or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart) | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win by 2+ | 46% | 2.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bayern Munich and VfB Stuttgart recent form
Bayern Munich
3W 2D 1L
VfB Stuttgart
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Bayern Munich absences
-
B. Zaragoza
knee injury
-
J. Musiala
health problems
-
S. Gnabry
muscle injury
-
T. Buchmann
knee injury
VfB Stuttgart absences
-
C. Fuhrich
muscle injury
-
D. Seimen
thigh injury
-
D. Zagadou
muscle injury
-
J. Arevalo
back injury
-
J. Diehl
muscle injury
-
L. Assignon
shoulder injury
-
L. Jaquez
muscle injury
-
L. Sauer
muscle injury
-
N. Nartey
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bayern Munich 8 · draws 1 · VfB Stuttgart 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Bayern Munich | 3-0 | VfB Stuttgart | DFB Pokal |
| 2026-04-19 | Bayern Munich | 4-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-06 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-5 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-16 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | Bayern Munich | Super Cup |
| 2025-02-28 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-19 | Bayern Munich | 4-0 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-04 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-1 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-17 | Bayern Munich | 3-0 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-03-04 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2022-09-10 | Bayern Munich | 2-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-08-29
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-08-29
- Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim 2026-08-29
- SV Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-08-29
- Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 2026-08-30
- Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Bayern Munich, previous: Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne: odds and pick
- Bayern Munich, next: FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich prediction
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt – VfB Stuttgart, 2026-05-16
- VfB Stuttgart, next: VfB Stuttgart v FC Cologne analysis