Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 1

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach

· Red Bull Arena, Leipzig· Referee Sven Jablonski, Germany

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was RasenBallsport Leipzig to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RasenBallsport LeipzigDrawBorussia M.Gladbach

Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

RasenBallsport LeipzigBorussia M.Gladbach
2.23 xG per 90 1.23
2.23 npxG per 90 1.23
12.1 PPDA 16.4
10.3 Deep completions per 90 5.6
1.61 xPTS per 90 1.03

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRasenBallsport LeipzigDrawBorussia M.Gladbach
Model51%24%25%
Market61%21%18%
Published58%22%20%
Edge-2%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.54.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement

Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 14 snapshots since 2026-08-22.

Opened 1.55Now 1.57 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
RasenBallsport Leipzig1.551.57+0.02
Draw4.454.47+0.02
Borussia M.Gladbach5.205.22+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.46RasenBallsport Leipzig
1.54Borussia M.Gladbach
Total expected goals
3.99
Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Borussia M.Gladbach)
1.50 / 1.05
Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Borussia M.Gladbach)
1.00 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.0% 2.8% 1.4% 0.8% 1 3.6% 9.6% 6.2% 3.2% 1.7% 2 5.8% 8.9% 6.8% 3.5% 1.9% 3 4.2% 6.5% 5.0% 2.6% 1.4% 4+ 3.9% 6.0% 4.6% 2.4% 1.3%

Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2RasenBallsport Leipzig58%1.72
Draw22%4.58
Borussia M.Gladbach20%5.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.61
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.40
No28%3.52
Double chance1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach)42%2.39
Handicap -1RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+32%3.10
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form

RasenBallsport Leipzig 4W 0D 2L
Borussia M.Gladbach 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

RasenBallsport Leipzig absences

  • A. Kone shoulder injury
  • A. Ouedraogo shoulder injury
  • C. Baumgartner thigh injury
  • L. Klostermann groin injury
  • M. Esteve thigh injury
  • O. Nyland foot injury
  • Romulo Cardoso knee injury

Borussia M.Gladbach absences

  • F. C. Chiarodia muscle injury
  • J. Castrop shoulder injury
  • T. Cvancara groin injury
  • Y. Konoplya knee injury
  • Z. Uno muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 5 · draws 2 · Borussia M.Gladbach 3.

RasenBallsport LeipzigDrawsBorussia M.Gladbach
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11RasenBallsport Leipzig1-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2025-11-28Borussia M.Gladbach0-0RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2025-03-29Borussia M.Gladbach1-0RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2024-11-09RasenBallsport Leipzig0-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2024-02-17RasenBallsport Leipzig2-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2023-09-23Borussia M.Gladbach0-1RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2023-03-11RasenBallsport Leipzig3-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2022-09-17Borussia M.Gladbach3-0RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2022-05-02Borussia M.Gladbach3-1RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2021-12-11RasenBallsport Leipzig4-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match