Why this pick: FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, Hoffenheim 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim: model vs market
| Source | FC Cologne | Draw | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 26% | 45% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 14 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne | 2.90 | 2.92 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.65 | +0.00 |
| Hoffenheim | 2.27 | 2.29 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cologne and Hoffenheim expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (FC Cologne / Hoffenheim)
- 1.07 / 1.27
- Defence rating (FC Cologne / Hoffenheim)
- 1.04 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: Hoffenheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 32% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Hoffenheim | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cologne or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Hoffenheim) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Cologne and Hoffenheim recent form
FC Cologne
1W 2D 3L
Hoffenheim
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
FC Cologne absences
-
J. Pauli
inactive
-
L. Maina
shin injury
-
S. Sebulonsen
muscle injury
-
T. Hubers
knee injury
Hoffenheim absences
-
A. Prass
muscle injury
-
T. Lemperle
suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Cologne 2 · draws 3 · Hoffenheim 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | FC Cologne | 2-2 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-03 | Hoffenheim | 0-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-11 | Hoffenheim | 1-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2023-09-16 | FC Cologne | 1-3 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-22 | Hoffenheim | 1-3 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2022-10-30 | FC Cologne | 1-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2022-03-06 | FC Cologne | 0-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2021-10-15 | Hoffenheim | 5-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2021-01-24 | Hoffenheim | 3-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2020-09-19 | FC Cologne | 2-3 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-08-28
- Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-08-29
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-08-29
- Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- SV Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-08-29
- Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 2026-08-30
- Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- FC Cologne, previous: Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne: odds and pick
- FC Cologne, next: VfB Stuttgart v FC Cologne analysis
- Hoffenheim, previous: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim prediction
- Hoffenheim, next: Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-09-05