Why this pick: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia Dortmund 10, Hamburger SV 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV: model vs market
| Source | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Published | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.18.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.36 | 1.30 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 5.69 | 5.55 | -0.14 |
| Hamburger SV | 9.45 | 8.73 | -0.72 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.86
- Attack rating (Borussia Dortmund / Hamburger SV)
- 1.26 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Borussia Dortmund / Hamburger SV)
- 0.87 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: Hamburger SV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Hamburger SV | 12% | 8.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia Dortmund or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamburger SV) | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win by 2+ | 43% | 2.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV recent form
Borussia Dortmund
3W 0D 3L
Hamburger SV
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Borussia Dortmund absences
-
E. Can
knee injury
-
M. Kaba
injury
-
N. Schlotterbeck
ankle injury
Hamburger SV absences
-
A. Rossing-Lelesiit
ankle injury
-
M. Muheim
muscle injury
-
W. Omari
personal reasons
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 6 · draws 2 · Hamburger SV 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-2 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-08 | Hamburger SV | 1-1 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2018-02-10 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2017-09-20 | Hamburger SV | 0-3 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2017-04-04 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2016-11-05 | Hamburger SV | 2-5 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2016-04-17 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2015-11-20 | Hamburger SV | 3-1 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2015-03-07 | Hamburger SV | 0-0 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2014-10-04 | Borussia Dortmund | 0-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-08-28
- Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-08-29
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-08-29
- Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim 2026-08-29
- SV Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-08-29
- Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 2026-08-30
- Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Borussia Dortmund, previous: Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund analysis
- Borussia Dortmund, next: Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-09-05
- Hamburger SV, previous: Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburger SV analysis
- Hamburger SV, next: Hamburger SV – Mainz 05, 2026-09-06