Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 1

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

· Mewa Arena, Mainz· Referee Tobias Stieler, Germany

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Mainz 05 to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mainz 05DrawSC Paderborn 07

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMainz 05DrawSC Paderborn 07
Model59%19%22%
Market56%24%20%
Published57%23%20%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.18 vs 1.78.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.

Opened 1.74Now 1.67 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mainz 051.741.67-0.07
Draw4.213.98-0.23
SC Paderborn 074.934.75-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.18Mainz 05
1.78SC Paderborn 07
Total expected goals
4.96
Attack rating (Mainz 05 / SC Paderborn 07)
1.66 / 1.28
Defence rating (Mainz 05 / SC Paderborn 07)
0.96 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.9% 0.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 1 1.8% 5.9% 4.4% 2.6% 1.7% 2 4.0% 7.0% 6.2% 3.7% 2.5% 3 3.8% 6.7% 6.0% 3.5% 2.3% 4+ 5.4% 9.7% 8.6% 5.1% 3.4%

Rows: Mainz 05 goals. Columns: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 96%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
79%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mainz 0557%1.75
Draw23%4.44
SC Paderborn 0720%4.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.19
Under 2.516%6.34
Both teams to scoreYes79%1.26
No21%4.87
Double chance1X (Mainz 05 or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or SC Paderborn 07)43%2.33
Handicap -1Mainz 05 win by 2+41%2.42
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 recent form

Mainz 05 3W 1D 2L
SC Paderborn 07 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Mainz 05 absences

  • B. Hollerbach achilles tendon injury
  • E. Martel knee injury
  • P. Nebel muscle injury
  • Silas broken shinbone

SC Paderborn 07 absences

  • N. Awortwie-Grant knee injury
  • S. Klaas groin injury
  • S. Michel muscle injury
  • T. Gayret knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Mainz 05 3 · draws 1 · SC Paderborn 07 0.

Mainz 05DrawsSC Paderborn 07
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-02-29Mainz 052-0SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
2019-10-05SC Paderborn 071-2Mainz 05Bundesliga
2015-01-31Mainz 055-0SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
2014-08-24SC Paderborn 072-2Mainz 05Bundesliga

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match