Why this pick: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Union Berlin 10, Eintracht Frankfurt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt: model vs market
| Source | Union Berlin | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.85.
- The market prices Eintracht Frankfurt below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eintracht Frankfurt, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 2.59 | 2.56 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.58 | -0.12 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.79 | 2.60 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.34
- Attack rating (Union Berlin / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.08 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Union Berlin / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.15 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union Berlin goals. Columns: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Berlin | 34% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union Berlin or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Eintracht Frankfurt) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eintracht Frankfurt win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt recent form
Union Berlin
3W 1D 2L
Eintracht Frankfurt
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Union Berlin absences
-
A. Ilic
illness
-
A. Markgraf
knee injury
-
F. Ronnow
muscle injury
-
M. Friedrich
inactive
-
S. Nsoki
muscle injury
Eintracht Frankfurt absences
-
H. Larsson
muscle injury
-
J. Burkardt
illness
-
J. Ngankam
injury
-
N. Collins
back injury
-
R. Doan
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Union Berlin 4 · draws 3 · Eintracht Frankfurt 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Union Berlin | 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2025-09-21 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-4 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2025-03-09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-27 | Union Berlin | 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-30 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2023-11-04 | Union Berlin | 0-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-04 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-0 | Union Berlin | DFB Pokal |
| 2023-03-19 | Union Berlin | 2-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2022-10-01 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2022-04-17 | Union Berlin | 2-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-08-28
- Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-08-29
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-08-29
- FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim 2026-08-29
- SV Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-08-29
- Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 2026-08-30
- Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Union Berlin, previous: Union Berlin – Augsburg, 2026-05-16
- Union Berlin, next: Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin analysis
- Eintracht Frankfurt, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt – VfB Stuttgart, 2026-05-16
- Eintracht Frankfurt, next: Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg analysis