Why this pick: Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Burnley 10, Wolverhampton Wanderers 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Burnley | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 3.11 | 3.16 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.54 | +0.04 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.15 | 2.17 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Burnley / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
- 1.07 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Burnley / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
- 1.14 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burnley or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Wolverhampton Wanderers) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+ | 16% | 6.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form
Burnley
1W 3D 2L
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burnley at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolverhampton Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burnley at home only, Wolverhampton Wanderers away only.
Injuries & availability
Burnley absences
- A. Ahmedhodzic knock
-
A. Barnes
muscle injury
-
A. Ramsey
hamstring injury
-
B. Humphreys
muscle injury
-
E. Agyei
muscle injury
-
H. Mejbri
hamstring injury
-
J. Banel
muscle injury
-
J. Beyer
hamstring injury
-
J. Cullen
knee injury
- M. Obafemi inactive
- M. Tresor Ndayishimiye inactive
- S. Sambo inactive
- Z. Amdouni ankle injury
Wolverhampton Wanderers absences
- A. Armstrong back injury
- B. Traore injury
- B. Traore injury
- M. Ji injury
- R. Gomes foot injury
-
R. Jimenez
knee injury
-
Y. Mosquera
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Burnley lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 37 G. Coudert
- 23 Lucas Pires
- 18 H. Ekdal
- 44 Igor
- 2 K. Walker
- 5 R. Hatate
- 3 Max Alleyne
- 7 J. Bruun Larsen
- 29 J. Laurent
- 19 L. Ramazani
- 9 J. Vardy
Bench: M. Weiß, U. Raghouber, M. Edwards, D. Satpaev, C. Roberts, A. Hountondji, O. Sonne, A. Broja, L. Castell
Wolverhampton Wanderers lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 José Sá
- 33 G. Konan
- 24 Toti Gomes
- 34 N. Djiga
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 7 André
- 5 M. Munetsi
- 19 R. Saïd
- 28 Fer López
- 27 J. Bellegarde
- 14 S. Neave
Bench: K. Trippier, Hugo Bueno, J. James, João Virgínia, Y. Mosquera, T. Doyle, T. Chirewa, M. Mane, L. Krejčí
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Burnley 4 · draws 3 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Burnley | 1-1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2024-08-28 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-0 | Burnley | League Cup |
| 2024-04-02 | Burnley | 1-1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2023-12-05 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-0 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2022-07-09 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-0 | Burnley | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-04-24 | Burnley | 1-0 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2021-12-01 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-0 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2021-04-25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-4 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2020-12-21 | Burnley | 2-1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Watford v Charlton — match page 2026-10-17
- Millwall vs Lincoln — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Middlesbrough vs Cardiff 2026-10-17
- Southampton v Bolton — match page 2026-10-17
- Birmingham vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd 2026-10-17
- West Brom v Blackburn — match page 2026-10-17
- Derby vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Burnley, previous: Burnley vs Charlton: odds and pick
- Burnley, next: Lincoln vs Burnley prediction
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, previous: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Bolton, 2026-10-13
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, next: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Portsmouth, 2026-10-20