Updated

England Championship · Matchday 6

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth

· Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton· Referee Edward Duckworth

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Wolverhampton Wanderers to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Wolverhampton WanderersDrawPortsmouth

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWolverhampton WanderersDrawPortsmouth
Model45%27%27%
Market60%23%17%
Published56%24%20%
Edge-4%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.17.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.52Now 1.58 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.521.58+0.06
Draw4.304.10-0.20
Portsmouth5.505.38-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Portsmouth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.17Portsmouth
Total expected goals
2.74
Attack rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Portsmouth)
1.09 / 1.00
Defence rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Portsmouth)
0.97 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 6.4% 4.5% 1.7% 0.7% 1 8.9% 13.1% 7.0% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.9% 9.3% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.1% 4.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Columns: Portsmouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wolverhampton Wanderers56%1.79
Draw24%4.16
Portsmouth20%5.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.94
Under 2.548%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.26
Double chance1X (Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Portsmouth)44%2.27
Handicap -1Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+24%4.23
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Portsmouth recent form

Wolverhampton Wanderers 3W 0D 3L
Portsmouth 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wolverhampton Wanderers at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Portsmouth away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home only, Portsmouth away only.

Injuries & availability

Wolverhampton Wanderers absences

  • A. Armstrong back injury
  • B. Traore injury
  • B. Traore injury
  • R. Gomes foot injury
  • R. Jimenez knee injury

Portsmouth absences

  • B. Arthur back injury
  • C. Bishop inactive
  • C. Ogilvie knee injury
  • C. Shaughnessy injury
  • F. Umeh hamstring injury
  • J. Murphy groin injury
  • J. Swift inactive
  • K. Anderson overload
  • L. Brooke-Smith ankle injury
  • M. Kosznovszky knee injury
  • T. Waddingham ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Wolverhampton Wanderers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 José Sá
  2. 3 Hugo Bueno
  3. 37 L. Krejčí
  4. 34 N. Djiga
  5. 38 J. Tchatchoua
  6. 5 M. Munetsi
  7. 7 André
  8. 36 M. Mane
  9. 28 Fer López
  10. 19 R. Saïd
  11. 14 S. Neave

Bench: J. James, João Virgínia, Y. Mosquera, T. Doyle, T. Chirewa, Toti Gomes, J. Ruddy, J. Bellegarde, G. Konan

Portsmouth lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Schmid
  2. 16 J. Meghoma
  3. 55 M. Dia
  4. 5 R. Poole
  5. 24 T. Devlin
  6. 38 E. Adams
  7. 19 R. Shein
  8. 37 I. Mohamed
  9. 10 A. Segecic
  10. 11 A. Kamara
  11. 17 T. Shade

Bench: M. Pack, T. Waddingham, Z. Swanson, R. Kavuma McQueen, O. Bailey, M. Milovanović, B. Killip, D. Bielica, E. Kenny

Before and after this match