Lincoln 4-1 Burnley: Prediction vs Result 24.10.26

Lincoln vs Burnley: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lincoln	Draw	Burnley
Model	28%	25%	46%
Market	34%	28%	38%
Published	33%	27%	40%
Edge	-2%	-1%	+2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.33.
The market prices Burnley below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lincoln vs Burnley odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Burnley, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.30Now 2.49 +0.19

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Lincoln	2.90	2.75	-0.15
Draw	3.42	3.40	-0.02
Burnley	2.30	2.49	+0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lincoln and Burnley expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.33Lincoln

1.75Burnley

Total expected goals: 3.09
Attack rating (Lincoln / Burnley): 0.81 / 1.03
Defence rating (Lincoln / Burnley): 1.39 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lincoln vs Burnley score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 6.9% 7.0% 4.1% 2.7% 1 5.0% 11.7% 9.4% 5.5% 3.6% 2 4.1% 7.1% 6.2% 3.6% 2.4% 3 1.8% 3.2% 2.8% 1.6% 1.1% 4+ 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5%

Rows: Lincoln goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lincoln vs Burnley goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 60%

Over 3.5 37%

Both teams to score: 62%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lincoln vs Burnley

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lincoln	33%	3.05
	Draw	27%	3.68
	Burnley	40%	2.50
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60%	1.68
	Under 2.5	40%	2.48
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	1.61
	No	38%	2.63
Double chance	1X (Lincoln or draw)	60%	1.67
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Burnley)	67%	1.49
Handicap -1	Burnley win by 2+	26%	3.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lincoln and Burnley recent form

Lincoln 2W 1D 3L

Burnley 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lincoln at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-2-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.60
Goals against / match: 2.40
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.