Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

Lincoln vs West Ham

· Sincil Bank, Lincoln· Referee Andrew Kitchen

Full time0 – 6

TipsterGrid prediction was West Ham to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LincolnDrawWest Ham

Lincoln vs West Ham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLincolnDrawWest Ham
Model22%22%56%
Market20%25%56%
Published20%24%56%
Edge0%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.31.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lincoln vs West Ham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on West Ham, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.65Now 1.70 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lincoln4.604.78+0.18
Draw4.053.82-0.23
West Ham1.651.70+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lincoln and West Ham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Lincoln
2.16West Ham
Total expected goals
3.47
Attack rating (Lincoln / West Ham)
0.87 / 1.68
Defence rating (Lincoln / West Ham)
1.06 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lincoln vs West Ham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 5.8% 7.3% 5.2% 4.7% 1 3.2% 9.7% 9.5% 6.9% 6.1% 2 2.7% 5.8% 6.2% 4.5% 4.0% 3 1.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.8% 4+ 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8%

Rows: Lincoln goals. Columns: West Ham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lincoln vs West Ham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lincoln vs West Ham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lincoln20%4.94
Draw24%4.15
West Ham56%1.80
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.48
Under 2.533%3.08
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.53
No34%2.90
Double chance1X (Lincoln or draw)44%2.26
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or West Ham)80%1.25
Handicap -1West Ham win by 2+35%2.86
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lincoln and West Ham recent form

Lincoln 2W 1D 3L
West Ham 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lincoln at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.

West Ham away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lincoln at home only, West Ham away only.

Injuries & availability

Lincoln absences

  • M. Melia thigh injury
  • T. Darikwa knee injury

West Ham absences

  • K. Lamadrid injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Lincoln lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 G. Wickens
  2. 20 C. Elder
  3. 15 S. Bradley
  4. 22 T. Hamer
  5. 25 D. Elerewe
  6. 24 I. Varfolomeev
  7. 14 C. McGrandles
  8. 18 B. House
  9. 33 D. Oyegoke
  10. 27 C. Ogbene
  11. 34 F. Draper

Bench: A. Reach, A. Coubiș, R. Towler, T. Bayliss, M. Ladefoged, D. Jefferies, R. Street, Y. Konak, J. Gauci

West Ham lineup · 4-4-1-1

  1. 1 M. Hermansen
  2. 5 Morato
  3. 3 M. Kilman
  4. 15 K. Mavropanos
  5. 34 J. Veltman
  6. 10 M. Solomon
  7. 17 M. Kanté
  8. 7 A. Engels
  9. 20 J. Bowen
  10. 19 Pablo
  11. 9 J. Piroe

Bench: K. Walker-Peters, V. Castellanos, D. Mukasa, A. Areola, T. Souček, O. Scarles, E. Austbö, A. Golambeckis, L. Orford

Lincoln vs West Ham head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Lincoln 0 · draws 0 · West Ham 1.

LincolnDrawsWest Ham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-09-27Lincoln0-1West HamLeague Cup

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match