Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln: model vs market
| Source | Sheffield Utd | Draw | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sheffield Utd, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 1.85 | 2.16 | +0.31 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| Lincoln | 3.90 | 3.38 | -0.52 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sheffield Utd and Lincoln expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Sheffield Utd / Lincoln)
- 0.96 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Sheffield Utd / Lincoln)
- 1.04 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sheffield Utd goals. Columns: Lincoln goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Utd | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Lincoln | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.90 |
| No | 48% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sheffield Utd or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Lincoln) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Utd win by 2+ | 17% | 5.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sheffield Utd and Lincoln recent form
Sheffield Utd
2W 0D 4L
Lincoln
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sheffield Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Lincoln away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sheffield Utd at home only, Lincoln away only.
Injuries & availability
Sheffield Utd absences
-
F. Seriki
knee injury
-
H. Burrows
muscle injury
-
R. One
hamstring injury
- S. McCallum inactive
- T. Campbell injury
Lincoln absences
-
M. Melia
thigh injury
-
T. Darikwa
knee injury
-
T. Hamer
health problems
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Sheffield Utd lineup · 4-2-2-2
- 1 M. Cooper
- 3 S. McCallum
- 15 L. Kitching
- 5 J. Tanganga
- 8 H. Choudhury
- 7 J. Rothwell
- 42 Sydie Peck
- 22 B. Brereton
- 19 T. Chong
- 45 P. Bamford
- 9 T. Cannon
Bench: O. Arblaster, J. Ayew, R. Donovan, H. Burrows, A. Davies, T. Campbell, M. McGuinness, R. Oné, J. Riedewald
Lincoln lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 G. Wickens
- 6 R. Towler
- 15 S. Bradley
- 25 D. Elerewe
- 3 A. Reach
- 14 C. McGrandles
- 8 T. Bayliss
- 16 D. Jefferies
- 18 B. House
- 17 R. Street
- 34 F. Draper
Bench: M. Ladefoged, I. Olaofe, C. Elder, T. Hamer, I. Varfolomeev, Y. Konak, C. Ogbene, D. Oyegoke, J. Gauci
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sheffield Utd 0 · draws 1 · Lincoln 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-30 | Sheffield Utd | 0-0 | Lincoln | League Cup |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- West Ham vs QPR 2026-10-09
- West Brom v Birmingham — match page 2026-10-10
- Swansea vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Charlton vs Bristol City 2026-10-10
- Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
- Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
- Bolton vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Before and after this match
- Sheffield Utd, next: Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd: odds and pick
- Lincoln, next: Lincoln vs West Ham prediction