West Ham 1-1 QPR: Prediction vs Result 09.10.26

West Ham vs QPR: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	West Ham	Draw	QPR
Model	63%	21%	17%
Market	65%	20%	15%
Published	64%	20%	16%
Edge	-1%	0%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.16.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

West Ham vs QPR odds movement

Median bookmaker price on West Ham, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 1.42Now 1.44 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
West Ham	1.42	1.44	+0.02
Draw	4.55	4.75	+0.20
QPR	6.55	6.15	-0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

West Ham and QPR expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.32West Ham

1.16QPR

Total expected goals: 3.48
Attack rating (West Ham / QPR): 1.76 / 0.86
Defence rating (West Ham / QPR): 1.12 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

West Ham vs QPR score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 2.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1 6.3% 9.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7% 2 8.3% 9.6% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 6.4% 7.4% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 6.4% 7.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6%

Rows: West Ham goals. Columns: QPR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

West Ham vs QPR goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for West Ham vs QPR

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	West Ham	64%	1.55
	Draw	20%	5.02
	QPR	16%	6.39
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.48
	Under 2.5	32%	3.09
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.59
	No	37%	2.69
Double chance	1X (West Ham or draw)	84%	1.19
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or QPR)	36%	2.81
Handicap -1	West Ham win by 2+	41%	2.43
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

West Ham and QPR recent form

West Ham 4W 1D 1L

QPR 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

West Ham at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-1
Win rate: 75%
Goals for / match: 3.50
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

QPR away

Record (W-D-L): 2-2-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 0.75
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: West Ham at home only, QPR away only.

Injuries & availability

West Ham absences

K. Lamadrid injury
M. Kante suspended

QPR absences

B. Kemper ankle injury
D. Cirkin suspended
G. Kamara inactive
I. Chair muscle injury
J. Obikwu inactive
K. Dembele knee injury
R. Burrell inactive
R. Kone muscle injury
T. Lamptey muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

West Ham lineup · 4-4-2

1 M. Hermansen
5 Morato
3 M. Kilman
15 K. Mavropanos
2 K. Walker-Peters
10 M. Solomon
7 A. Engels
28 T. Souček
20 J. Bowen
11 V. Castellanos
14 D. Mukasa

Bench: J. Piroe, Pablo, A. Areola, S. Magassa, O. Scarles, J. Veltman, E. Austbö, A. Golambeckis, L. Orford

QPR lineup · 4-4-2

1 P. Charles
12 B. Kemper
6 J. Clarke-Salter
3 J. Dunne
2 K. Adamson
11 P. Smyth
18 G. Kamara
5 R. Edwards
17 K. Poku
24 N. Madsen
26 Rayan Jawad Kolli

Bench: L. Morrison, C. Ward, H. Vale, R. Kone, Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu, A. Mbengue, J. Varane, T. Lamptey

West Ham vs QPR head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: West Ham 3 · draws 2 · QPR 0.

60% 40% 0%

West HamDrawsQPR

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-01-11	West Ham	2-1	QPR	England FA Cup
2015-04-25	QPR	0-0	West Ham	Premier League
2014-10-05	West Ham	2-0	QPR	Premier League
2013-01-19	West Ham	1-1	QPR	Premier League
2012-10-01	QPR	1-2	West Ham	Premier League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

West Brom v Birmingham — match page 2026-10-10
Swansea vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Charlton vs Bristol City 2026-10-10
Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
Bolton vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-10

Before and after this match

West Ham, previous: West Ham vs Leeds prediction
West Ham, next: Lincoln vs West Ham prediction
QPR, next: QPR v Derby analysis