Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

Norwich vs Southampton

· Carrow Road, Norwich· Referee Steve Martin

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Southampton to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NorwichDrawSouthampton

Norwich vs Southampton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNorwichDrawSouthampton
Model23%19%58%
Market39%26%36%
Published35%24%41%
Edge-4%-2%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.66.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Southampton below our published probability: +5.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Norwich vs Southampton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Southampton, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-10.

Opened 2.88Now 2.62 -0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Norwich2.272.44+0.17
Draw3.723.65-0.07
Southampton2.882.62-0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Norwich and Southampton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66Norwich
2.65Southampton
Total expected goals
4.31
Attack rating (Norwich / Southampton)
1.28 / 1.39
Defence rating (Norwich / Southampton)
1.57 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Norwich vs Southampton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.9% 3.0% 4.7% 4.2% 5.2% 1 1.6% 6.5% 7.8% 6.9% 8.6% 2 1.9% 4.9% 6.5% 5.7% 7.2% 3 1.0% 2.7% 3.6% 3.2% 4.0% 4+ 0.6% 1.6% 2.2% 1.9% 2.4%

Rows: Norwich goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Norwich vs Southampton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Norwich vs Southampton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Norwich35%2.90
Draw24%4.16
Southampton41%2.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.24
Under 2.520%5.10
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.32
No24%4.15
Double chance1X (Norwich or draw)59%1.71
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Southampton)65%1.53
Handicap -1Southampton win by 2+39%2.56
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Norwich and Southampton recent form

Norwich 2W 0D 4L
Southampton 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Norwich at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.

Southampton away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Norwich at home only, Southampton away only.

Injuries & availability

Norwich absences

  • A. Ahmed knee injury
  • K. McLean injury
  • L. Mahovo ankle injury
  • M. Topic knee injury
  • M. Toure shoulder injury
  • P. A. Diallo injury

Southampton absences

  • C. Bragg suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Norwich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 D. Grimshaw
  2. 14 B. Chrisene
  3. 33 J. Córdoba
  4. 15 Ruairi McConville
  5. 3 J. Stacey
  6. 7 P. Mattsson
  7. 16 Jacob Wright
  8. 29 O. Schwartau
  9. 20 A. Ben Slimane
  10. 11 A. Brooks
  11. 30 M. Kvistgaarden

Bench: H. Darling, L. Mahovo, D. Yongwa, A. Crnac, J. Makama, P. Maghoma, S. Field, C. Ansen, A. Musaba

Southampton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Daniel Peretz
  2. 3 R. Manning
  3. 13 K. Schlotterbeck
  4. 5 J. Stephens
  5. 6 Z. Abbott
  6. 30 J. Ward-Prowse
  7. 4 F. Downes
  8. 23 S. Edozie
  9. 10 F. Azaz
  10. 27 K. Matsuki
  11. 11 L. Dobbin

Bench: Léo Scienza, C. Jander, C. Larin, J. Bree, N. Wood-Gordon, T. Fellows, G. Long, D. Mubama, Welington

Norwich vs Southampton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Norwich 2 · draws 2 · Southampton 6.

NorwichDrawsSouthampton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-18Southampton1-0NorwichEngland Championship
2025-12-13Norwich2-1SouthamptonEngland Championship
2025-08-26Norwich0-3SouthamptonLeague Cup
2024-01-01Norwich1-1SouthamptonChampionship
2023-08-12Southampton4-4NorwichChampionship
2022-02-25Southampton2-0NorwichPremier League
2021-11-20Norwich2-1SouthamptonPremier League
2020-06-19Norwich0-3SouthamptonPremier League
2019-12-04Southampton2-1NorwichPremier League
2017-01-18Southampton1-0NorwichFA Cup

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match