Southampton vs Portsmouth: model vs market
| Source | Southampton | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Southampton vs Portsmouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Southampton, 43 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.49 | 1.56 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.04 |
| Portsmouth | 6.00 | 5.45 | -0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Southampton and Portsmouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Southampton / Portsmouth)
- 1.46 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Southampton / Portsmouth)
- 1.02 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Southampton vs Portsmouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Portsmouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Southampton vs Portsmouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Southampton vs Portsmouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Portsmouth | 18% | 5.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Southampton or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Portsmouth) | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Southampton and Portsmouth recent form
Southampton
3W 2D 1L
Portsmouth
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Southampton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Portsmouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Southampton at home only, Portsmouth away only.
Injuries & availability
Southampton absences
-
C. Jander
lacking match fitness
Portsmouth absences
-
C. Ogilvie
knee injury
-
F. Umeh
hamstring injury
-
J. Murphy
groin injury
-
K. Anderson
muscle injury
-
L. Brooke-Smith
ankle injury
-
M. Kosznovszky
knee injury
-
Marezi
calf injury
-
T. Waddingham
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Southampton lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Daniel Peretz
- 3 R. Manning
- 5 J. Stephens
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck
- 14 J. Bree
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse
- 4 F. Downes
- 7 Léo Scienza
- 10 F. Azaz
- 26 Cameron Bragg
- 9 C. Larin
Bench: C. Jander, L. Dobbin, N. Wood-Gordon, T. Fellows, S. Edozie, G. Long, K. Matsuki, D. Mubama, Welington
Portsmouth lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 N. Schmid
- 16 J. Meghoma
- 55 M. Dia
- 5 R. Poole
- 22 Z. Swanson
- 38 E. Adams
- 7 M. Pack
- 25 R. Kavuma McQueen
- 17 T. Shade
- 11 A. Kamara
- 9 C. Bishop
Bench: A. Segecic, R. Shein, K. Anderson, T. Devlin, O. Bailey, M. Milovanović, D. Bielica, E. Kenny, I. Mohamed
Southampton vs Portsmouth head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Southampton 1 · draws 4 · Portsmouth 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Portsmouth | 1-1 | Southampton | England Championship |
| 2025-09-14 | Southampton | 0-0 | Portsmouth | England Championship |
| 2019-09-24 | Portsmouth | 0-4 | Southampton | League Cup |
| 2012-04-07 | Southampton | 2-2 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 2011-12-18 | Portsmouth | 1-1 | Southampton | Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- West Ham vs QPR 2026-10-09
- West Brom v Birmingham — match page 2026-10-10
- Swansea vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Charlton vs Bristol City 2026-10-10
- Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
- Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
- Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
Before and after this match
- Southampton, next: Norwich – Southampton, 2026-10-14
- Portsmouth, next: Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd: odds and pick