Updated

England Championship · Matchday 9

Swansea vs Norwich

· Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea· Referee Andrew Kitchen

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Swansea to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SwanseaDrawNorwich

Swansea vs Norwich: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSwanseaDrawNorwich
Model66%18%16%
Market41%27%32%
Published47%25%28%
Edge+6%-2%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.29.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Swansea below our published probability: +6.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Swansea vs Norwich odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Swansea, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.50Now 2.30 -0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Swansea2.502.30-0.20
Draw3.423.45+0.03
Norwich2.622.91+0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Swansea and Norwich expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.64Swansea
1.29Norwich
Total expected goals
3.92
Attack rating (Swansea / Norwich)
1.16 / 1.38
Defence rating (Swansea / Norwich)
0.77 / 1.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Swansea vs Norwich score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 1.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1 4.5% 7.4% 4.3% 1.9% 0.8% 2 6.9% 8.8% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 3 6.0% 7.8% 5.0% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 7.5% 9.7% 6.2% 2.7% 1.1%

Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Norwich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Swansea vs Norwich goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Swansea vs Norwich

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Swansea47%2.13
Draw25%4.01
Norwich28%3.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.01
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.12
Double chance1X (Swansea or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Norwich)53%1.88
Handicap -1Swansea win by 2+45%2.20
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Swansea and Norwich recent form

Swansea 4W 1D 1L
Norwich 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Swansea at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Norwich away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Swansea at home only, Norwich away only.

Injuries & availability

Swansea absences

  • C. Burgess achilles tendon injury
  • J. Key health problems
  • R. Stewart muscle injury
  • S. Eustaquio injury

Norwich absences

  • A. Ahmed knee injury
  • B. Chrisene injury
  • K. McLean injury
  • L. Mahovo ankle injury
  • M. Topic knee injury
  • M. Toure shoulder injury
  • P. A. Diallo injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Swansea lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 22 L. Vigouroux
  2. 14 J. Tymon
  3. 23 S. Welsh
  4. 5 B. Cabango
  5. 26 F. Lissah
  6. 17 Gonçalo Franco
  7. 4 J. Fulton
  8. 7 M. Widell
  9. 49 M. Yeo
  10. 33 A. Idah
  11. 30 Joseph Okopu

Bench: A. Fisher, J. Seelt, M. Stamenić, E. Just, Z. Vipotnik, Eom Ji-Sung, Tom Iorpenda, Tiago Parente, R. Stewart

Norwich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 V. Kovačević
  2. 13 D. Yongwa
  3. 33 J. Córdoba
  4. 15 Ruairi McConville
  5. 3 J. Stacey
  6. 7 P. Mattsson
  7. 16 Jacob Wright
  8. 29 O. Schwartau
  9. 25 P. Maghoma
  10. 11 A. Brooks
  11. 30 M. Kvistgaarden

Bench: H. Darling, B. Chrisene, A. Crnac, A. Ben Slimane, J. Makama, S. Field, D. Grimshaw, K. Fisher, A. Musaba

Swansea vs Norwich head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Swansea 5 · draws 2 · Norwich 3.

SwanseaDrawsNorwich
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-25Norwich1-1SwanseaEngland Championship
2025-10-25Swansea2-1NorwichEngland Championship
2025-01-25Norwich5-1SwanseaChampionship
2024-09-14Swansea1-0NorwichChampionship
2024-04-27Norwich2-2SwanseaChampionship
2023-10-04Swansea2-1NorwichChampionship
2023-04-22Norwich0-3SwanseaChampionship
2022-12-10Swansea0-1NorwichChampionship
2021-02-05Swansea2-0NorwichChampionship
2020-11-07Norwich1-0SwanseaChampionship

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match