Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd: model vs market
| Source | Portsmouth | Draw | Sheffield Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Portsmouth, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 2.40 | 2.30 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.35 | +0.01 |
| Sheffield Utd | 2.78 | 3.02 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Portsmouth / Sheffield Utd)
- 0.90 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Portsmouth / Sheffield Utd)
- 1.03 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portsmouth goals. Columns: Sheffield Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Sheffield Utd | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portsmouth or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Sheffield Utd) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Portsmouth win by 2+ | 15% | 6.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd recent form
Portsmouth
1W 2D 3L
Sheffield Utd
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portsmouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Sheffield Utd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Portsmouth at home only, Sheffield Utd away only.
Injuries & availability
Portsmouth absences
-
C. Ogilvie
knee injury
-
F. Umeh
hamstring injury
-
J. Murphy
groin injury
-
L. Brooke-Smith
ankle injury
-
M. Kosznovszky
knee injury
-
T. Waddingham
ankle injury
Sheffield Utd absences
-
F. Seriki
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Portsmouth lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 N. Schmid
- 16 J. Meghoma
- 55 M. Dia
- 5 R. Poole
- 22 Z. Swanson
- 37 I. Mohamed
- 7 M. Pack
- 25 R. Kavuma McQueen
- 10 A. Segecic
- 11 A. Kamara
- 29 M. Milovanović
Bench: C. Bishop, R. Shein, K. Anderson, T. Devlin, O. Bailey, B. Killip, D. Bielica, E. Kenny, E. Adams
Sheffield Utd lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 M. Cooper
- 3 S. McCallum
- 15 L. Kitching
- 5 J. Tanganga
- 8 H. Choudhury
- 22 B. Brereton
- 7 J. Rothwell
- 42 Sydie Peck
- 19 T. Chong
- 45 P. Bamford
- 9 T. Cannon
Bench: O. Arblaster, J. Ayew, R. Donovan, H. Burrows, A. Davies, T. Campbell, M. McGuinness, K. Phillips, J. Riedewald
Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Portsmouth 1 · draws 1 · Sheffield Utd 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Portsmouth | 0-1 | Sheffield Utd | England Championship |
| 2025-11-26 | Sheffield Utd | 3-0 | Portsmouth | England Championship |
| 2025-02-08 | Sheffield Utd | 2-1 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 2024-09-28 | Portsmouth | 0-0 | Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| 2013-04-20 | Portsmouth | 3-0 | Sheffield Utd | League One |
| 2012-10-29 | Sheffield Utd | 1-0 | Portsmouth | League One |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton 2026-10-13
- Cardiff v Watford — match page 2026-10-13
- Burnley vs Charlton — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Bristol City v Blackburn — match page 2026-10-13
- Millwall vs Swansea — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Wrexham vs West Brom 2026-10-13
- Birmingham vs Preston 2026-10-13
- Stoke City v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-10-13
Before and after this match
- Portsmouth, previous: Southampton vs Portsmouth prediction
- Portsmouth, next: Norwich v Portsmouth analysis
- Sheffield Utd, previous: Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln: odds and pick
- Sheffield Utd, next: Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd: odds and pick