Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

QPR vs Derby

· Loftus Road, London· Referee Matthew Corlett

Full time4 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was QPR to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
QPRDrawDerby

QPR vs Derby: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceQPRDrawDerby
Model48%30%22%
Market56%24%19%
Published54%26%20%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.89.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

QPR vs Derby odds movement

Median bookmaker price on QPR, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.75Now 1.67 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
QPR1.751.67-0.08
Draw3.803.85+0.05
Derby4.304.92+0.62

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

QPR and Derby expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.42QPR
0.89Derby
Total expected goals
2.30
Attack rating (QPR / Derby)
0.85 / 0.80
Defence rating (QPR / Derby)
0.91 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

QPR vs Derby score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.2% 7.6% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 1 12.9% 13.8% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 2 10.0% 8.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 3 4.7% 4.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 2.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: QPR goals. Columns: Derby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

QPR vs Derby goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for QPR vs Derby

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2QPR54%1.84
Draw26%3.88
Derby20%5.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.47
Under 2.559%1.68
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.18
No54%1.85
Double chance1X (QPR or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Derby)46%2.19
Handicap -1QPR win by 2+24%4.12
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

QPR and Derby recent form

QPR 1W 4D 1L
Derby 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

QPR at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

Derby away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: QPR at home only, Derby away only.

Injuries & availability

QPR absences

  • I. Chair muscle injury
  • K. Dembele knee injury
  • R. Burrell inactive

Derby absences

  • C. Forsyth knee injury
  • C. Taylor injury
  • D. Murkin hamstring injury
  • J. Widell Zetterstrom knee injury
  • M. Clarke calf injury
  • P. Agyemang achilles tendon injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

QPR lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 P. Charles
  2. 12 B. Kemper
  3. 5 R. Edwards
  4. 3 J. Dunne
  5. 2 K. Adamson
  6. 18 G. Kamara
  7. 20 H. Vale
  8. 24 N. Madsen
  9. 11 P. Smyth
  10. 26 Rayan Jawad Kolli
  11. 15 A. Lloyd

Bench: L. Morrison, J. Clarke-Salter, C. Ward, K. Poku, R. Kone, I. Alemayehu, A. Mbengue, J. Varane

Derby lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 J. Vickers
  2. 26 R. Hedges
  3. 28 D. Sanderson
  4. 6 S. Langås
  5. 23 J. Ward
  6. 4 D. Ozoh
  7. 20 A. Mowatt
  8. 11 S. Szmodics
  9. 8 B. Clark
  10. 16 M. Fuseini
  11. 9 C. Morris

Bench: R. Brewster, R. O'Donnell, F. Bilbija, L. Salvesen, H. Meister, R. Nyambe, L. Travis, O. Fraulo, C. Blackett-Taylor

QPR vs Derby head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: QPR 5 · draws 1 · Derby 4.

QPRDrawsDerby
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-25QPR2-3DerbyEngland Championship
2025-10-25Derby1-0QPREngland Championship
2025-02-14QPR4-0DerbyChampionship
2024-10-05Derby2-0QPRChampionship
2022-04-18QPR1-0DerbyChampionship
2021-11-29Derby1-2QPRChampionship
2021-01-23QPR0-1DerbyChampionship
2020-11-04Derby0-1QPRChampionship
2020-02-25QPR2-1DerbyChampionship
2019-11-30Derby1-1QPRChampionship

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match