Derby 1-1 Wrexham: Prediction vs Result 10.10.26

Derby vs Wrexham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Derby	Draw	Wrexham
Model	40%	28%	32%
Market	32%	29%	39%
Published	34%	29%	38%
Edge	+2%	0%	-2%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Derby vs Wrexham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wrexham, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.36Now 2.38 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Derby	2.90	2.93	+0.03
Draw	3.22	3.28	+0.06
Wrexham	2.36	2.38	+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Derby and Wrexham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40Derby

1.24Wrexham

Total expected goals: 2.65
Attack rating (Derby / Wrexham): 0.82 / 0.87
Defence rating (Derby / Wrexham): 1.19 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Derby vs Wrexham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.3% 7.6% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 1 8.7% 13.6% 7.7% 3.2% 1.3% 2 7.0% 8.7% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.3% 4.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Derby goals. Columns: Wrexham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Derby vs Wrexham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Derby vs Wrexham

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Derby	34%	2.95
	Draw	29%	3.50
	Wrexham	38%	2.66
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.03
	Under 2.5	51%	1.97
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.82
	No	45%	2.22
Double chance	1X (Derby or draw)	62%	1.60
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or Wrexham)	66%	1.51
Handicap -1	Wrexham win by 2+	14%	7.06
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Derby and Wrexham recent form

Derby 1W 1D 4L

Wrexham 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Derby at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.75
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.