Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

Why this pick: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rayo Vallecano 10, Alaves 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.17.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 2 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rayo Vallecano and Alaves expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

2.72

Attack rating (Rayo Vallecano / Alaves)

1.10 / 1.10

Defence rating (Rayo Vallecano / Alaves)

0.95 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

63%

No goals (0–0)

8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Rayo Vallecano and Alaves recent form

Rayo Vallecano LLWWDD 2W 2D 2L

Alaves WLWWDL 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.