Updated

La Liga · Matchday 10

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna

· Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid· Referee Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Atletico Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico MadridDrawDeportivo La Coruna

Why this pick: Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atletico Madrid 10, Deportivo La Coruna 9). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Atletico MadridDeportivo La Coruna
2.20 xG per 90 1.35
1.99 npxG per 90 1.27
9.9 PPDA 13.1
11.7 Deep completions per 90 4.8
2.11 xPTS per 90 1.34

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico MadridDrawDeportivo La Coruna
Model56%26%18%
Market75%16%9%
Published70%19%11%
Edge-5%+3%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.30Now 1.28 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Madrid1.301.28-0.02
Draw5.306.00+0.70
Deportivo La Coruna8.0011.00+3.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.81Atletico Madrid
1.01Deportivo La Coruna
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (Atletico Madrid / Deportivo La Coruna)
1.27 / 1.03
Defence rating (Atletico Madrid / Deportivo La Coruna)
0.83 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 3.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 1 8.3% 12.5% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 2 9.9% 9.9% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3 6.2% 6.3% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 4.6% 4.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Madrid70%1.42
Draw19%5.37
Deportivo La Coruna11%9.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.25
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.28
Double chance1X (Atletico Madrid or draw)89%1.12
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna)30%3.38
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win by 2+34%2.93
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna recent form

Atletico Madrid 5W 1D 0L
Deportivo La Coruna 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Madrid at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.

Deportivo La Coruna away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Madrid at home only, Deportivo La Coruna away only.

Injuries & availability

Atletico Madrid absences

  • C. Romero muscle injury
  • J. Cardoso thigh injury
  • Koke muscle injury

Deportivo La Coruna absences

  • B. Ede hamstring injury
  • M. Casado collarbone injury
  • N. Carrillo muscle injury
  • P. Aubameyang knee injury
  • Z. Eddahchouri wrist injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Atletico Madrid lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 J. Oblak
  2. 22 Álex Grimaldo
  3. 17 D. Hancko
  4. 18 Marc Pubill
  5. 14 Marcos Llorente
  6. 23 M. Hjulmand
  7. 8 Pablo Barrios
  8. 11 A. Lookman
  9. 10 Álex Baena
  10. 7 Lee Kang-In
  11. 19 J. Álvarez

Bench: J. Musso, O. Vargas, Rodrigo Mendoza, A. Sørloth, J. David, Arnau Ortiz, G. Simeone, Robin Le Normand, Salvador Esquivel, J. Dominguez, Dani Martínez, J. Castillo

Deportivo La Coruna lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Leo Román
  2. 12 G. Quagliata
  3. 15 Miguel Loureiro
  4. 20 J. Giménez
  5. 2 Adrià Alti
  6. 16 L. Amatucci
  7. 8 Diego Villares
  8. 10 Peke
  9. 21 Mario Soriano
  10. 11 David Mella
  11. 32 B. Nsongo

Bench: Arnau Comas, L. Noubi, Dani Barcia, Riki Rodríguez, Angeliño, Jonathan Asp Jensen, Luismi Cruz, Ximo Navarro, Adama Traoré, Álvaro Fernández, Kevin Sánchez

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico Madrid 7 · draws 3 · Deportivo La Coruna 0.

Atletico MadridDrawsDeportivo La Coruna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-13Deportivo La Coruna0-1Atletico MadridCopa del Rey
2018-04-01Atletico Madrid1-0Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2017-11-04Deportivo La Coruna0-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2017-03-02Deportivo La Coruna1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2016-09-25Atletico Madrid1-0Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2016-03-12Atletico Madrid3-0Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2015-10-30Deportivo La Coruna1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2015-04-18Deportivo La Coruna1-2Atletico MadridLa Liga
2014-11-30Atletico Madrid2-0Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2013-05-04Deportivo La Coruna0-0Atletico MadridLa Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match