Updated

La Liga · Matchday 9

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

· Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe· Referee Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Rayo Vallecano to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GetafeDrawRayo Vallecano

Why this pick: Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Rayo Vallecano 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

GetafeRayo Vallecano
0.75 xG per 90 1.42
0.75 npxG per 90 1.35
13.1 PPDA 8.6
3.1 Deep completions per 90 4.3
0.84 xPTS per 90 1.33

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGetafeDrawRayo Vallecano
Model39%32%30%
Market31%33%36%
Published33%32%35%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 33 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.44Now 2.62 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Getafe2.713.05+0.34
Draw3.102.92-0.18
Rayo Vallecano2.442.62+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Getafe and Rayo Vallecano expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Getafe
1.16Rayo Vallecano
Total expected goals
2.44
Attack rating (Getafe / Rayo Vallecano)
0.76 / 0.95
Defence rating (Getafe / Rayo Vallecano)
1.05 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 6.9% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 1 8.4% 15.3% 7.4% 2.9% 1.1% 2 7.4% 8.6% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 3.3% 3.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Getafe33%3.03
Draw32%3.09
Rayo Vallecano35%2.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.18
Under 2.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.87
No47%2.14
Double chance1X (Getafe or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)68%1.48
X2 (draw or Rayo Vallecano)67%1.49
Handicap -1Rayo Vallecano win by 2+13%7.64
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Getafe and Rayo Vallecano recent form

Getafe 1W 3D 2L
Rayo Vallecano 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Getafe at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Rayo Vallecano away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Rayo Vallecano away only.

Injuries & availability

Getafe absences

  • A. Garcia injury
  • C. Uche knee injury
  • I. Azon injury
  • Juanmi knee injury
  • O. Mangala muscle injury
  • Z. Romero muscle injury

Rayo Vallecano absences

  • A. Batalla broken calfbone
  • A. Ratiu injury
  • Luiz Felipe knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Getafe lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 David Soria
  2. 22 J. Mojica
  3. 26 J. Valou
  4. 2 D. Dakonam
  5. 10 M. Satriano
  6. 6 Mario Martín
  7. 8 N. Gudelj
  8. 17 Kiko Femenía
  9. 19 E. Ünal
  10. 11 Ramón Terrats

Bench: J. Letáček, Davinchi, S. Sazonov, A. Abqar, Borja Mayoral, S. Boselli, Francho Serrano, Andrés García, Alberto Risco, Diego Ferrer

Rayo Vallecano lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 25 E. Audero
  2. 17 Adrià Pedrosa
  3. 15 Mujaid Sadick
  4. 24 F. Lejeune
  5. 20 I. Balliu
  6. 8 Unai López
  7. 6 P. Ciss
  8. 7 Isi Palazón
  9. 18 Álvaro García
  10. 10 Sergio Camello
  11. 19 Jorge de Frutos

Bench: Dani Cárdenas, M. Kumbulla, Pedro Díaz, Alemão, G. Tsitaishvili, Fran Pérez, Pelayo Fernández, Óscar Valentín, J. Vertrouwd, G. Bouare, Rayane Belid

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Getafe 0 · draws 6 · Rayo Vallecano 4.

GetafeDrawsRayo Vallecano
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Getafe0-2Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2026-01-02Rayo Vallecano1-1GetafeLa Liga
2025-05-02Rayo Vallecano1-0GetafeLa Liga
2024-08-24Getafe0-0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2024-04-13Rayo Vallecano0-0GetafeLa Liga
2024-01-02Getafe0-2Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2023-02-12Getafe1-1Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2022-10-14Rayo Vallecano0-0GetafeLa Liga
2022-05-08Getafe0-0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2021-09-18Rayo Vallecano3-0GetafeLa Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match